Overcoming the Hobbesian Instinct (RUSSIA)

An ancient Chinese proverb says, "Making a prediction is difficult -- especially in regard to the future." I would go a step further and say, "We have absolutely no idea what the future has in store for us." There are plenty of instances in the last century of how unexpected, epochal events in global affairs have caught us completely by surprise.

In his memoirs of a trip through Europe in 1911, British historian Arnold Toynbee noted that Europe had enjoyed 40 years of peace and that the borders between states had effectively been eliminated. After traveling from one country to another, Toynbee returned home in high spirits, confident that Europeans had a bright future of integration, peace and prosperity. Just three years later, World War I broke out, and 20 years after that -- World War II. Neither the brilliant historian Toynbee nor most of his contemporaries could have imagined this tragic chain of events.

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