What do the financial crisis and US Middle East policy have in common?
Behind the financial crisis was a well-practiced mechanism for concealing risk. The risk was there, and it was constantly growing, but it could be disguised, repackaged and renamed, so that in the end it seemed to have disappeared. Much of the debate about foreign policy in the United States is conducted in the same manner: Policymakers and pundits, to get what they want, conceal the risks.
In the case of the Middle East, they concealed the risks of bringing Yasser Arafat in from the cold; they concealed the risks of neglecting the growth of al-Qaida; and they concealed the risks involved in occupying Iraq. It isn't that the risks weren't known. The intelligence was always there. But if you were clever enough, and determined enough, you could find a way to conceal them.
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