The countdown to the most important event for the future of the Middle East has begun. In 2011, the term of President Hosni Mubarak (in power since 1981) will end and Egyptians will vote for a new president of the republic. Mubarak, who would be 83 then, is unlikely to seek another term. Despite the various undemocratic succession scenarios under debate - the ascent to power of Mubarak's son Gamal, that of an unknown military official, or that of another official close to Mubarak - the presidential election will constitute a watershed one way or the other for the future of democracy in the Middle East . . .
The Obama administration must be aware of the critical phase through which Cairo is passing. It must also know that if the United States claims that it is committed to supporting democratic change in the Arab world, then this is a historic opportunity - which will not recur - to restore its credibility in the eyes of the Arab citizenry. In dealing with Egyptian succession, the US has an opportunity to contribute constructively to the creation of a model of democratic governance in the Arab world's most populous nation, a nation that is accustomed to being the starting point of shifts that have changed the region, most notably the decision of late President Anwar Sadat to sign a peace agreement with Israel.
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