The might of the world's greatest superpower - the USA - is set to decline over the next twenty years. America's political, economic and military dominance will give way to new powers such as China, India and Brazil, says the influential American National Intelligence Council (NIC).
The NIC paints a rather gloomy picture of America's position in the world by the year 2025. But the decline of the US has in fact already begun, says George Joffé, who is a lecturer at the Cambridge International Studies Centre in Britain. America's actions in Iraq and other parts of the world have contributed to that decline, he says, but there are more reasons:
"Simply because of the growth of the Chinese economy and the growth of the so-called ‘BRICs' - that's Brazil, Russia, India and China. And it's been clear for some time that a multi-polar world was emerging".
FULL ARTICLE
23 November 2008
Bullying Barack Stakes Rising on Pres-elect’s First Test (China Post, TAIWAN)
Barack Obama campaigned on the promise of “change,” but one change the president-elect may be planning on — not deploying a U.S. missile defense in Eastern Europe — would be a big mistake.
Indeed, it’s exactly the type of about-face that nations like Russia, Iran and North Korea hope for from the incoming administration.
Worse, it will likely be seen abroad as knuckling to Russian bullying.
Two weeks ago, just a day after the U.S. elections, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev made a virulently anti-American speech — his first major address since taking office this spring and arguably the first foreign “test” of the president-elect.
FULL ARTICLE
Indeed, it’s exactly the type of about-face that nations like Russia, Iran and North Korea hope for from the incoming administration.
Worse, it will likely be seen abroad as knuckling to Russian bullying.
Two weeks ago, just a day after the U.S. elections, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev made a virulently anti-American speech — his first major address since taking office this spring and arguably the first foreign “test” of the president-elect.
FULL ARTICLE
22 November 2008
The Arab World Looks to a New America (Der Spiegel, GERMANY)
The US has long been a model for many parts of the Arab world, but the Bush administration's foreign policy led to rifts. Now, the region has high hopes from America, but they aren't sure what to expect from President-elect Barack Obama.
It's about 120 kilometers (75 miles) from Dubai to Abu Dhabi, which is roughly the distance from Santa Monica to Santa Barbara. One hundred years ago, California was the El Dorado for the Americans, a land on the horizon, far off near the edge of their map and yet at the center of their fantasies. Today, the Gulf Emirates occupy a similar place in the imaginations of the Arabs. Rich. Modern. Bold. The Emirates are enlightened where much of the Arab world is repressed and held back by its self-imposed restrictions. Many a young man in the slums of Cairo, in the prisons of Baghdad or behind the walls of Palestine has dreamt of speeding, wild and free, along the road from Dubai to Abu Dhabi in an SUV or in a convertible earned through his own hard work.
FULL ARTICLE
It's about 120 kilometers (75 miles) from Dubai to Abu Dhabi, which is roughly the distance from Santa Monica to Santa Barbara. One hundred years ago, California was the El Dorado for the Americans, a land on the horizon, far off near the edge of their map and yet at the center of their fantasies. Today, the Gulf Emirates occupy a similar place in the imaginations of the Arabs. Rich. Modern. Bold. The Emirates are enlightened where much of the Arab world is repressed and held back by its self-imposed restrictions. Many a young man in the slums of Cairo, in the prisons of Baghdad or behind the walls of Palestine has dreamt of speeding, wild and free, along the road from Dubai to Abu Dhabi in an SUV or in a convertible earned through his own hard work.
FULL ARTICLE
Intelligence Report Says World Domination Over (RFI, FRANCE)
The US's National Intelligence Council (NIC) declares "We can no longer call the shots alone," in a global trends report which sees China, India and Russia as rising power and predicts that the European Union will be a "hobbled giant" by 2025. The four-yearly report pools the analysis of all US intelligence agencies. It predicts uncertain times, as Barack Obama prepares to become US President.
The 121-page report, called Global Trends 2025 - a world transformed, warns that US interests will face challenges if China becomes a peer competitor with a strong military and an energy-hungry economy.
"Few countries are poised to have more impact on the world over the next 15-20 years than China," the report said. "If current trends persist, by 2025 China will have the world's second largest economy and will be a leading military power."
The European Union is likely to be "losing clout" by 2025 because of "a democracy gap" between Brussels and European people, which will prevent it translating its economic power into global influence.
FULL ARTICLE
The 121-page report, called Global Trends 2025 - a world transformed, warns that US interests will face challenges if China becomes a peer competitor with a strong military and an energy-hungry economy.
"Few countries are poised to have more impact on the world over the next 15-20 years than China," the report said. "If current trends persist, by 2025 China will have the world's second largest economy and will be a leading military power."
The European Union is likely to be "losing clout" by 2025 because of "a democracy gap" between Brussels and European people, which will prevent it translating its economic power into global influence.
FULL ARTICLE
Is Obama's Mideast Peace Platform Coming into Focus? (Haaretz, ISRAEL)
Eight weeks before Barack Obama is sworn into office, signs have emerged over the weekend that point to what is turning out to be the new administration's plan to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. This is the conclusion that one reaches when considering the upcoming appointment of Hillary Clinton to the position of secretary of state; the reports that Obama could name retired general James Jones to the position of national security adviser; and the president-elect's reliance on the advice of Brent Scowcroft, who served as national security adviser in the administrations of Gerald Ford and George H.W. Bush. Obama and Scowcroft are said to have spoken at least twice since the election.
Despite the attention being paid to Clinton, no less important is the move made two days ago by Scowcroft and the man who succeeded him in office as national security adviser to Jimmy Carter, Zbigniew Brzezinski. In an op-ed piece penned for the Washington Post, Scowcroft (whom John McCain considered naming as a special envoy to the Middle East) and Brzezinski (who was close to Obama during the initial stages of his candidacy for president) offered a kind of first draft of "The Obama Plan."
FULL ARTICLE
Despite the attention being paid to Clinton, no less important is the move made two days ago by Scowcroft and the man who succeeded him in office as national security adviser to Jimmy Carter, Zbigniew Brzezinski. In an op-ed piece penned for the Washington Post, Scowcroft (whom John McCain considered naming as a special envoy to the Middle East) and Brzezinski (who was close to Obama during the initial stages of his candidacy for president) offered a kind of first draft of "The Obama Plan."
FULL ARTICLE
21 November 2008
OP-ED: "Never Waste a Crisis" (Portugal News)
Can Obama Change the Game?
US president-elect Barack Obama inherits the in-box from hell, but an all-points crisis like the present one also creates opportunities for radical change that do not exist in more normal times. As Rahm Emanuel, his newly appointed chief of staff, put it: “Never waste a crisis.” Is Obama clever enough and radical enough to seize those opportunities?
For example, he has promised to shut down the prison camp at Guantanamo Bay in Cuba. While he’s at it, why not hand the whole US military base at Guantanamo back to the Cubans?
Guantanamo has absolutely no military purpose; Washington has only hung on to it for all these decades to annoy the Cuban regime. If the US wanted to bomb Cuba, it would do it from Florida. If it wanted to invade, it would land Marines on beaches elsewhere, not march them into the teeth of the Cuban defences around Guantanamo.
FULL ARTICLE
US president-elect Barack Obama inherits the in-box from hell, but an all-points crisis like the present one also creates opportunities for radical change that do not exist in more normal times. As Rahm Emanuel, his newly appointed chief of staff, put it: “Never waste a crisis.” Is Obama clever enough and radical enough to seize those opportunities?For example, he has promised to shut down the prison camp at Guantanamo Bay in Cuba. While he’s at it, why not hand the whole US military base at Guantanamo back to the Cubans?
Guantanamo has absolutely no military purpose; Washington has only hung on to it for all these decades to annoy the Cuban regime. If the US wanted to bomb Cuba, it would do it from Florida. If it wanted to invade, it would land Marines on beaches elsewhere, not march them into the teeth of the Cuban defences around Guantanamo.
FULL ARTICLE
OP-ED: Sign of Desperation (Globe and Mail, CANADA)
Make no mistake: Al-Qaeda's leadership is scared of Barack Obama.
A year ago, the Anglo-American pundit Andrew Sullivan suggested in The Atlantic Monthly that his readers “consider this hypothetical. It's November, 2008. A young Pakistani Muslim is watching television and sees that this man – Barack Hussein Obama – is the new face of America. In one simple image, America's soft power has been ratcheted up not a notch, but a logarithm.” Judging by this week's video message from Ayman al-Zawahiri, the al-Qaeda terror group's second-in-command, the extremists of the world have caught on to this possibility.
Mr. al-Zawahiri's ludicrous characterization of Mr. Obama as a “house negro” (interspersed helpfully with clips of the African-American activist Malcolm X) demonstrates just how out of touch his organization is with American reality, and the desperation of a terrorist outfit that has lately produced plenty of bark, but very little bite. Make no mistake: Al-Qaeda's leadership is scared of Barack Hussein Obama.
FULL ARTICLE
A year ago, the Anglo-American pundit Andrew Sullivan suggested in The Atlantic Monthly that his readers “consider this hypothetical. It's November, 2008. A young Pakistani Muslim is watching television and sees that this man – Barack Hussein Obama – is the new face of America. In one simple image, America's soft power has been ratcheted up not a notch, but a logarithm.” Judging by this week's video message from Ayman al-Zawahiri, the al-Qaeda terror group's second-in-command, the extremists of the world have caught on to this possibility.
Mr. al-Zawahiri's ludicrous characterization of Mr. Obama as a “house negro” (interspersed helpfully with clips of the African-American activist Malcolm X) demonstrates just how out of touch his organization is with American reality, and the desperation of a terrorist outfit that has lately produced plenty of bark, but very little bite. Make no mistake: Al-Qaeda's leadership is scared of Barack Hussein Obama.
FULL ARTICLE
20 November 2008
Obama Cabinet Vetting Process Most Rigid on Record (Toronto Star, CANADA)
Nominees quizzed on finances, foreign travel, mental health history and brushes with law.
Ever taken a puff of marijuana? Overlooked a work permit for your household help? Grazed with a lobbyist at Washington's top tables? Slung a "friendly" arm around an intern? Or been a titch too relaxed with your taxes?
If the answer is no, you can pass go and hand in your application for a job with Barack Obama's new administration.
But don't be too confident. Obama's vetting process, the most stringent on record, is very, very detailed. By the end of a 63-item questionnaire, and an interview worthy of a Catholic confessional, you might be out of the running.
"Obama is vetting his team in a way that I haven't seen in a U.S. president in a long time," says David Gruder, a California psychologist and author of The New IQ: How Integrity Intelligence Serves You, Your Relationships and Our World. "He is demonstrating a real willingness to learn from mistakes of the past."
FULL ARTICLE
Ever taken a puff of marijuana? Overlooked a work permit for your household help? Grazed with a lobbyist at Washington's top tables? Slung a "friendly" arm around an intern? Or been a titch too relaxed with your taxes?If the answer is no, you can pass go and hand in your application for a job with Barack Obama's new administration.
But don't be too confident. Obama's vetting process, the most stringent on record, is very, very detailed. By the end of a 63-item questionnaire, and an interview worthy of a Catholic confessional, you might be out of the running.
"Obama is vetting his team in a way that I haven't seen in a U.S. president in a long time," says David Gruder, a California psychologist and author of The New IQ: How Integrity Intelligence Serves You, Your Relationships and Our World. "He is demonstrating a real willingness to learn from mistakes of the past."
FULL ARTICLE
Obama Brings US in from the Cold (Independent, UK)
In a landmark speech, the next president pledges to revive Kyoto Protocol and end American isolationism over climate change.
Prospects for success in the world's struggle to combat global warming have been transformed at a stroke after US President-elect Barack Obama made it clear that America would play its full part in renewing the Kyoto Protocol climate-change treaty.
His words, in effect, brought an end to eight years of willful climate obstructionism by the administration of George Bush, who withdrew the US from Kyoto in March 2001, thus doing incalculable damage to the efforts of the international community to construct a unified response to the threat.
The Bush withdrawal set back the international effort by nearly a decade – years in which it became increasingly clear that the warming of the atmosphere being caused by greenhouse gas emissions was proceeding much faster than UN scientists thought it would.
FULL ARTICLE
Prospects for success in the world's struggle to combat global warming have been transformed at a stroke after US President-elect Barack Obama made it clear that America would play its full part in renewing the Kyoto Protocol climate-change treaty.His words, in effect, brought an end to eight years of willful climate obstructionism by the administration of George Bush, who withdrew the US from Kyoto in March 2001, thus doing incalculable damage to the efforts of the international community to construct a unified response to the threat.
The Bush withdrawal set back the international effort by nearly a decade – years in which it became increasingly clear that the warming of the atmosphere being caused by greenhouse gas emissions was proceeding much faster than UN scientists thought it would.
FULL ARTICLE
19 November 2008
OP-ED: Back-Scratching in America (Moscow Times, RUSSIA)
By Alexei Pankin
A few weeks ago, a British friend of mine said: "I have a personal banker in Switzerland whom I had consulted about possible foreign investments, but as soon as I realized that he was basing his advice on information taken from the Financial Times and The Wall Street Journal, I immediately closed my account in that bank. As a result, I saved myself from serious losses during the crisis."
In recent days, a number of respected Western media outlets, including the BBC and The New York Times, have concluded that their initial reports about the outbreak of the Russia-Georgia war in August were erroneous. In the first weeks of the conflict, readers and viewers were given the same message: "Authoritarian Russia unleashed an unprovoked war against the young Georgian democracy." It took three months for the media to realize that Georgia launched the first attack against both the peaceful citizens of Tskhinvali and Russian peacekeepers, thereby compelling Russia to send its forces into Georgian territory.
If most of the Western media misled the public for so long over the simple question of who attacked whom in the Georgian conflict, then what guarantee do we have that the rest of the information they are reporting is reliable?
And as people search for the cause of the financial crisis, experts increasingly point to the lack of objective analysis in the United States. On a government level, for example, U.S. bureaucrats are becoming increasingly less professional and more politicized as they cater to the demands of their elected leaders.
FULL ARTICLE
A few weeks ago, a British friend of mine said: "I have a personal banker in Switzerland whom I had consulted about possible foreign investments, but as soon as I realized that he was basing his advice on information taken from the Financial Times and The Wall Street Journal, I immediately closed my account in that bank. As a result, I saved myself from serious losses during the crisis."
In recent days, a number of respected Western media outlets, including the BBC and The New York Times, have concluded that their initial reports about the outbreak of the Russia-Georgia war in August were erroneous. In the first weeks of the conflict, readers and viewers were given the same message: "Authoritarian Russia unleashed an unprovoked war against the young Georgian democracy." It took three months for the media to realize that Georgia launched the first attack against both the peaceful citizens of Tskhinvali and Russian peacekeepers, thereby compelling Russia to send its forces into Georgian territory.
If most of the Western media misled the public for so long over the simple question of who attacked whom in the Georgian conflict, then what guarantee do we have that the rest of the information they are reporting is reliable?
And as people search for the cause of the financial crisis, experts increasingly point to the lack of objective analysis in the United States. On a government level, for example, U.S. bureaucrats are becoming increasingly less professional and more politicized as they cater to the demands of their elected leaders.
FULL ARTICLE
OP-ED: The Real Issue Isn't a Shield in Central Europe (Moscow Times, RUSSIA)
By Fyodor Lukyanov
In the two weeks since he was elected president, Barack Obama has received conflicting signals from Moscow. Aside from a threat to deploy Iskander missiles in Kaliningrad, the Kremlin has made some conciliatory statements. Whether we see a new chapter in U.S.-Russian relations will become clear only after Obama and his foreign policy team are firmly in place after January. Nonetheless, we can still identify the key points that will determine the nature of the relationship.
The two main irritants in relations are NATO expansion and plans to install elements of a U.S. missile-defense system in Poland and the Czech Republic. Following the war in the Caucasus, NATO may have less enthusiasm for offering Membership Action Plans for Ukraine and Georgia, but the missile-defense issue will become either the main obstacle to bilateral relations or the key opportunity for improving them.
Since the missile-defense program was first proposed, it has caused a great deal of frustration for both sides. At a U.S.-Russia summit in Sochi in April, then-President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President George W. Bush signed a declaration on a strategic framework for relations between the two countries. After the summit, the Kremlin concluded that the next U.S. president would make the final decision about whether the United States would go forward with its missile-defense system in Central Europe. In other words, Moscow thought Bush would not force the issue before he left office.
FULL ARTICLE
In the two weeks since he was elected president, Barack Obama has received conflicting signals from Moscow. Aside from a threat to deploy Iskander missiles in Kaliningrad, the Kremlin has made some conciliatory statements. Whether we see a new chapter in U.S.-Russian relations will become clear only after Obama and his foreign policy team are firmly in place after January. Nonetheless, we can still identify the key points that will determine the nature of the relationship.The two main irritants in relations are NATO expansion and plans to install elements of a U.S. missile-defense system in Poland and the Czech Republic. Following the war in the Caucasus, NATO may have less enthusiasm for offering Membership Action Plans for Ukraine and Georgia, but the missile-defense issue will become either the main obstacle to bilateral relations or the key opportunity for improving them.
Since the missile-defense program was first proposed, it has caused a great deal of frustration for both sides. At a U.S.-Russia summit in Sochi in April, then-President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President George W. Bush signed a declaration on a strategic framework for relations between the two countries. After the summit, the Kremlin concluded that the next U.S. president would make the final decision about whether the United States would go forward with its missile-defense system in Central Europe. In other words, Moscow thought Bush would not force the issue before he left office.
FULL ARTICLE
18 November 2008
Fears for Irish Jobs as Citigroup Prepares to Cut 52,000 Worldwide (Independent, IRELAND)
CITIGROUP, the ailing US financial giant, which employs over 2,000 staff here, shocked the market yesterday by announcing that it would cut up to 52,000 jobs by the second half of next year.
The planned 15pc cut in staff comes on top of 23,000 job cuts already made since the bank's employee numbers peaked at the end of last year and are designed to cut costs by 20pc to about $50bn. The bank warned that London and New York would inevitably bear the brunt of job cuts.
The group would not comment on Irish jobs. It has an Irish workforce of over 2,200 based in Dublin's IFSC and Waterford and just months ago announced a €35m investment for a research, development and innovation facility for the next generation of financial software to be based in Dublin.
Win Bischoff, the bank's chairman, admitted that, along with other banks, Citi had hired too many people during the long credit-driven boom and predicted a wave of cuts by financial services companies.
FULL ARTICLE
The planned 15pc cut in staff comes on top of 23,000 job cuts already made since the bank's employee numbers peaked at the end of last year and are designed to cut costs by 20pc to about $50bn. The bank warned that London and New York would inevitably bear the brunt of job cuts.The group would not comment on Irish jobs. It has an Irish workforce of over 2,200 based in Dublin's IFSC and Waterford and just months ago announced a €35m investment for a research, development and innovation facility for the next generation of financial software to be based in Dublin.
Win Bischoff, the bank's chairman, admitted that, along with other banks, Citi had hired too many people during the long credit-driven boom and predicted a wave of cuts by financial services companies.
FULL ARTICLE
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
