Engaging Russia at Highest Level (RUSSIA)

The odds are increasing that U.S.-Russia relations could be rebooted as both sides send positive signals to each other. On a visit to Germany, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin spoke enthusiastically about Moscow's hope for the new U.S. administration, pointing to positive signals from Obama on plans to reconsider missile defense and that the security of Ukraine and Georgia could be ensured through mechanisms "other than their membership in NATO."

In addition, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that if Obama canceled plans for a missile-defense system in Central Europe, there would be no deployments of Iskander missiles in Kaliningrad.

In all likelihood, Obama will freeze missile defense. "At a time of another Great Depression, Obama cannot justify giving Poland $20 billion for hosting a missile-defense system that does not really work," a Washington colleague told me.

It is unclear how Obama will handle Russia structurally. It is unlikely that he will appoint a "Russia-policy tsar," such as Strobe Talbott, former deputy secretary of state. This would elevate Russia to a list of high-priority regions, such as Afghanistan, Pakistan and the Middle East, which would require its own special envoy. There are simply not enough issues on the U.S.-Russian agenda to warrant such a high-level appointment.

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