Obama's Taiwan Test (Asia Times, HONG KONG)

Taiwan remains one of the most sensitive and divisive issues between the United States and China. What should Chinese President Hu Jintao expect from Barack Obama when he is president on this critical issue? Until the new president is sworn in and key personnel are confirmed, the new administration’s policy will remain uncertain.

Moreover, the overall framework as well as detailed policies will emerge gradually; a comprehensive policy statement on Taiwan is unlikely to be issued. Nevertheless, it may be useful to make some predictions. Below are eight policy objectives that are likely to be pursued by the Obama administration. They represent the musings of an independent scholar and interested observer with no special inside knowledge or access to the president-elect. [For details on each point, click through at the bottom.]

1. Promote positive-sum relations among the US, China, and Taiwan
2. Repair and strengthen US-Taiwan relations
3. Encourage further improvement in cross-strait relations
4. Make no changes in the "one China" policy, but possibly modify the rhetoric
5. Call for China to reduce its military deployments opposite Taiwan
6. Firmly support greater participation by Taiwan in international organizations
7. Maintain a robust security relationship with Taiwan
8. Support Taiwan’s democratic system

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