Hamas and Israel will find out soon enough that he isn't easily pressured.
How does an aggressively no-drama president-elect respond to the most drama-filled, tragedy-crammed, emotionally fraught conflict on the planet, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict? Answer: very quietly.
His “one president at a time” mantra — George W Bush is in the job until January 20 — has become almost as automatic as his famous “Yes, we can”. Since election night, Obama has been, to most Americans, a blur of activity. But what has he actually said? He has given many press conferences, but almost all about appointments and none of them news-making. Many of us, weaned on soaring doses of his eloquence from the campaign, have had withdrawal symptoms.
And yet if you let the actions and inactions speak for themselves, as Americans seem to have done so far, the direction is clear enough: massive stimulus at home, caution and gradualism abroad. It’s immensely popular as a formula.
FULL ARTICLE
04 January 2009
The Siege of Gaza: Obama’s First Test (Today's Zaman, TURKEY)
While some had predicted that Barack Obama would be "tested" early in his administration by America's enemy Osama, Obama's first major foreign policy "test" has instead come from America's ally, Israel.
Israel's war in Gaza has been calculated and deliberately planned to occur at this time. The Israeli government has taken advantage of a world in which many are distracted by the global economic crisis and the celebration of Christmas and the new year. Equally important, the bombing of Gaza has been executed on George W. Bush's "watch" so that Israel can count on a Bush administration whose failure to act as an honest broker was seen most starkly in the silence and support of the US during the Israeli war in Lebanon. The Israelis struck during the US presidential transition and before Obama, who could prove less sympathetic, takes office.
FULL ARTICLE
Israel's war in Gaza has been calculated and deliberately planned to occur at this time. The Israeli government has taken advantage of a world in which many are distracted by the global economic crisis and the celebration of Christmas and the new year. Equally important, the bombing of Gaza has been executed on George W. Bush's "watch" so that Israel can count on a Bush administration whose failure to act as an honest broker was seen most starkly in the silence and support of the US during the Israeli war in Lebanon. The Israelis struck during the US presidential transition and before Obama, who could prove less sympathetic, takes office.
FULL ARTICLE
03 January 2009
Key to U.S. Foreign Policy Success? China (Japan Times, JAPAN)
U.S. President-elect Barack Obama, asked about his foreign policy priorities when named Person of the Year by Time magazine, listed nuclear proliferation, climate change and global poverty as well as Iraq, Afghanistan, Iran, the trans-Atlantic alliance, Russia, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict — and then, almost as an afterthought, "managing our relationship with China and the entire Pacific Rim."
In a way, this is good since it reflects the relatively calm state of that relationship, with no crisis that needs immediate presidential attention.
But the next president must recognize that China is not just a relationship to be managed. It is perhaps the key relationship that the United States must sustain if Obama is to achieve success in virtually all his other foreign policy priority areas.
In the 21st century, there is no relationship more important to the U.S. This does not mean that Washington can give up its network of alliances in Europe and in Asia. Those alliances are important. But Washington must give greater recognition of China's role in the coming decades.
FULL ARTICLE
In a way, this is good since it reflects the relatively calm state of that relationship, with no crisis that needs immediate presidential attention.
But the next president must recognize that China is not just a relationship to be managed. It is perhaps the key relationship that the United States must sustain if Obama is to achieve success in virtually all his other foreign policy priority areas.
In the 21st century, there is no relationship more important to the U.S. This does not mean that Washington can give up its network of alliances in Europe and in Asia. Those alliances are important. But Washington must give greater recognition of China's role in the coming decades.
FULL ARTICLE
02 January 2009
Peace on Earth: Once a Year? (Korean Times, KOREA)
``Peace on Earth," people ritualistically intone every Christmas. It's a wonderful platitude. But utterly meaningless, at least in the United States. The American government is the most aggressive, belligerent, and warlike on earth.
That doesn't mean Washington is the worst, most murderous regime in existence. There are wars like America's invasion of Panama, and then there are wars like Iraq's invasion of Iran. Moreover, governments can kill promiscuously without invading other nations such as North Korea.
Yet no other country so frequently attacks other states or so ostentatiously claims the right to invade other states as the U.S. Consider the American government's record since 1980.
It has used, backed, or threatened force more than a dozen times: Nicaragua, Grenada, Libya, Lebanon, Panama, Haiti (twice), Somalia, Iraq (twice), Bosnia, Serbia, and Afghanistan (twice).
One can justify one or another of these actions, but most were relevant to no American interests and promoted no vital interests. Lebanon? Serbia? Somalia? Haiti?
The bankruptcy of Washington's position is evident in how U.S. officials routinely change their justifications to fit the circumstances. Iraq had to be invaded. After all, there were weapons of mass destruction (WMDs) to seize. Oops.
There were 9/11 terrorists to punish. Oops. There was democracy to promote. Oops. It turns out Washington doesn't need to have reasons, let alone good reasons, for invading other states.
The militaristic perspective of America's policymakers is reflected in U.S. ``defense" spending. Only one country, Russia, has a nuclear force comparable to that of the U.S., and Washington's arsenal remains far superior.
FULL ARTICLE
That doesn't mean Washington is the worst, most murderous regime in existence. There are wars like America's invasion of Panama, and then there are wars like Iraq's invasion of Iran. Moreover, governments can kill promiscuously without invading other nations such as North Korea.
Yet no other country so frequently attacks other states or so ostentatiously claims the right to invade other states as the U.S. Consider the American government's record since 1980.
It has used, backed, or threatened force more than a dozen times: Nicaragua, Grenada, Libya, Lebanon, Panama, Haiti (twice), Somalia, Iraq (twice), Bosnia, Serbia, and Afghanistan (twice).
One can justify one or another of these actions, but most were relevant to no American interests and promoted no vital interests. Lebanon? Serbia? Somalia? Haiti?
The bankruptcy of Washington's position is evident in how U.S. officials routinely change their justifications to fit the circumstances. Iraq had to be invaded. After all, there were weapons of mass destruction (WMDs) to seize. Oops.
There were 9/11 terrorists to punish. Oops. There was democracy to promote. Oops. It turns out Washington doesn't need to have reasons, let alone good reasons, for invading other states.
The militaristic perspective of America's policymakers is reflected in U.S. ``defense" spending. Only one country, Russia, has a nuclear force comparable to that of the U.S., and Washington's arsenal remains far superior.
FULL ARTICLE
Obama, Time to Let Cuba in from the Cold (Mail & Guardian, SOUTH AFRICA)
The Cuban revolution began 50 years ago just as I was starting my second term at university. As history students we were obsessed by the Spanish civil war, a conflict that had ended just two decades earlier, and we were also fascinated by the contemporary struggle of the revolutionary forces in Algeria. Then along rolled the wonderful Cuban revolution, with its charismatic and bearded leadership descending from the hills, young men in their 20s brandishing guns and seizing the cities, and calling for land reform.
In a world dominated by aging conservative leaders who had risen to power during the second world war or before -- Macmillan, Eisenhower, De Gaulle, Adenauer, Khrushchev, Salazar, Franco -- the radical and youthful guerrillas, Fidel Castro and Che Guevara especially, put Cuba on the map for students all over the world, and the unknown continent of Latin America suddenly emerged into view. We clipped the newspapers, followed events closely, and took sides as Castro began his epic quarrel with the United States -- through the US abolition of the sugar quota, the arrival of Soviet oil, the CIA invasion at the Bay of Pigs, and the missile crisis of 1962.
Like hundreds of others I could not wait to get there, finally reaching the promised land in 1963.
FULL ARTICLE
In a world dominated by aging conservative leaders who had risen to power during the second world war or before -- Macmillan, Eisenhower, De Gaulle, Adenauer, Khrushchev, Salazar, Franco -- the radical and youthful guerrillas, Fidel Castro and Che Guevara especially, put Cuba on the map for students all over the world, and the unknown continent of Latin America suddenly emerged into view. We clipped the newspapers, followed events closely, and took sides as Castro began his epic quarrel with the United States -- through the US abolition of the sugar quota, the arrival of Soviet oil, the CIA invasion at the Bay of Pigs, and the missile crisis of 1962.
Like hundreds of others I could not wait to get there, finally reaching the promised land in 1963.
FULL ARTICLE
Post Inaguaration: A Harsh Dose of Reality (Sydney Morning Herald, AUSTRALIA)
Americans already know a great deal about what this year will bring. Much of it will look like the latter half of last year.
So much momentum has built into the country's economic collapse that inertia alone will keep the job losses coming. Last month's figures, due to be released next week, are expected to show about 600,000 jobs shed in December alone, bringing total job losses for last year to more than 2 million.
Consumer spending has collapsed. The Christmas retail trade was the worst for decades and the slowing will continue indefinitely.
There will be a brief spate of national self-congratulations over Barack Obama's inauguration as the country's first African-American president, that milestone coming within a generation of the end of segregation. Pageantry appeals to Americans' sense of grandeur and their own unique mission. This time it will come with a sense of wonderment at how far the country has moved.
Harsh reality will return when Washington confronts the economic stimulus package, the actual dimensions of which are yet to be decided. In Australian currency it will be something more than $1000 billion of spending on infrastructure such as roads, bridges, hospitals and schools. Some argue that anything less than $US1 trillion ($1.5 trillion) will be insufficient to engineer recovery but that the new administration may take fright at the "t-word".
Mr Obama's advisers are talking of up to $US775 billion over two years for the package.
In any event, unemployment, which started last year at less than 5 per cent and is now 6.7 per cent, will continue towards double figures. The economic malaise is likely to persist until at least the last quarter of the year.
That is without factoring in a possible failure in the automotive industry.
FULL ARTICLE
So much momentum has built into the country's economic collapse that inertia alone will keep the job losses coming. Last month's figures, due to be released next week, are expected to show about 600,000 jobs shed in December alone, bringing total job losses for last year to more than 2 million.
Consumer spending has collapsed. The Christmas retail trade was the worst for decades and the slowing will continue indefinitely.
There will be a brief spate of national self-congratulations over Barack Obama's inauguration as the country's first African-American president, that milestone coming within a generation of the end of segregation. Pageantry appeals to Americans' sense of grandeur and their own unique mission. This time it will come with a sense of wonderment at how far the country has moved.
Harsh reality will return when Washington confronts the economic stimulus package, the actual dimensions of which are yet to be decided. In Australian currency it will be something more than $1000 billion of spending on infrastructure such as roads, bridges, hospitals and schools. Some argue that anything less than $US1 trillion ($1.5 trillion) will be insufficient to engineer recovery but that the new administration may take fright at the "t-word".
Mr Obama's advisers are talking of up to $US775 billion over two years for the package.
In any event, unemployment, which started last year at less than 5 per cent and is now 6.7 per cent, will continue towards double figures. The economic malaise is likely to persist until at least the last quarter of the year.
That is without factoring in a possible failure in the automotive industry.
FULL ARTICLE
31 December 2008
China Needs More U.S. Recognition (China Post, TAIWAN)
U.S. President- elect Barack Obama, asked about his foreign policy priorities when named Person of the Year by “Time” magazine, listed nuclear proliferation, climate change and global poverty as well as Iraq, Afghanistan, Iran, the transatlantic alliance, Russia, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict — and then, almost as an afterthought, “managing our relationship with China and the entire Pacific Rim.”
In a way, this is good since it reflects the relatively calm state of that relationship, with no crisis that needs immediate presidential attention.
But the next president must recognize that China is not just a relationship to be managed. It is perhaps the key relationship that the United States must sustain if Obama is to achieve success in virtually all his other foreign policy priority areas.
In the 21st century, there is no relationship more important to the United States.
FULL ARTICLE
In a way, this is good since it reflects the relatively calm state of that relationship, with no crisis that needs immediate presidential attention.
But the next president must recognize that China is not just a relationship to be managed. It is perhaps the key relationship that the United States must sustain if Obama is to achieve success in virtually all his other foreign policy priority areas.
In the 21st century, there is no relationship more important to the United States.
FULL ARTICLE
Iran Encounters Obama (Jordan Times, JORDAN)
Since its Islamist revolution of 1979, Iran’s hardline leadership has relentlessly painted America as a racist, bloodthirsty power bent on oppressing Muslims worldwide. Nothing punctures this narrative more than the election of an African-American, Barack Obama, who supports dialogue with Iran and whose middle name - Hussein - is that of the central figure in Shiite Islam. While the Bush administration’s policies often served to unite Iran’s disparate political landscape against a common threat, an Obama presidency could accentuate the country’s deep internal divisions.
Though intolerant conservatives are currently in firm control of Iran’s government, the moderates and reformists among the political elite - dormant but not dead - may be resuscitated by Obama’s victory. They were swept out of power by hardliners who used the country’s jittery sense of security - accentuated by the presence of tens of thousands of American troops in neighbouring countries - as a pretext to rig elections, stifle dissent, and reverse political and social freedoms. But reformists are likely to mount a rigorous challenge to President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as he seeks reelection in June 2009.
Similarly, for Iran’s young population - the least anti-American in the Middle East - there is now renewed hope for reconciliation with the United States, something that seemed impossible during the Bush years.
FULL ARTICLE
Though intolerant conservatives are currently in firm control of Iran’s government, the moderates and reformists among the political elite - dormant but not dead - may be resuscitated by Obama’s victory. They were swept out of power by hardliners who used the country’s jittery sense of security - accentuated by the presence of tens of thousands of American troops in neighbouring countries - as a pretext to rig elections, stifle dissent, and reverse political and social freedoms. But reformists are likely to mount a rigorous challenge to President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as he seeks reelection in June 2009.
Similarly, for Iran’s young population - the least anti-American in the Middle East - there is now renewed hope for reconciliation with the United States, something that seemed impossible during the Bush years.
FULL ARTICLE
30 December 2008
OP-ED: Bush's Hollow "Promising" Middle East (Jerusalem Post, ISRAEL)
Two events earlier this month summed up differing views of George W. Bush's Middle East record.
In one, Bush himself offered a valedictory speech, declaring that "the Middle East in 2008 is a freer, more hopeful and more promising place than it was in 2001." In the other, an Iraqi journalist, Muntadar al-Zaidi, expressed disrespect and rejection by hurling shoes at Bush as the US president spoke in Baghdad, yelling at him: "This is a farewell kiss! Dog! Dog!" Ironically, Zaidi's very impudence confirmed Bush's point about greater freedom; would he have dared to throw shoes at Saddam Hussein?
While I like and think well of Bush, I have criticized his response to radical Islam since 2001, his Arab-Israeli policy since 2002, his Iraq policy since 2003 and his democracy policy since 2005. In both 2007 and 2008, I critiqued the shortcomings of his overall Middle East efforts.
Today, I take issue with his claim that the Middle East is more hopeful and more promising than in 2001. Consider some of the ways things have degenerated:
• Iran has nearly built nuclear weapons and appears to be planning for a devastating electromagnetic pulse (EMP) attack on the United States.
• Pakistan is on its way to becoming a nuclear-armed, Islamist rogue state.
• The price of oil reached an all-time high, only to collapse due to a US-led recession.
• Turkey went from being a stalwart ally to the most anti-American country in the world.
• Iraq remains an albatross (or a pair of shoes?) around America's neck, incurring expenses, fatalities and with an immense potential for danger.
• Rejection of Israel's existence as a Jewish state has become more widespread and virulent.
• Russia has reemerged as a hostile force in the region.
• Democratic efforts have collapsed (Egypt), increased Islamist influence (Lebanon) or paved the way for Islamists to attain power (Gaza).
• The doctrine of preemption has been discredited.
Bush's two successes, an Iraq without Saddam Hussein and a Libya without WMD, hardly balance out these failures.
FULL ARTICLE
In one, Bush himself offered a valedictory speech, declaring that "the Middle East in 2008 is a freer, more hopeful and more promising place than it was in 2001." In the other, an Iraqi journalist, Muntadar al-Zaidi, expressed disrespect and rejection by hurling shoes at Bush as the US president spoke in Baghdad, yelling at him: "This is a farewell kiss! Dog! Dog!" Ironically, Zaidi's very impudence confirmed Bush's point about greater freedom; would he have dared to throw shoes at Saddam Hussein?
While I like and think well of Bush, I have criticized his response to radical Islam since 2001, his Arab-Israeli policy since 2002, his Iraq policy since 2003 and his democracy policy since 2005. In both 2007 and 2008, I critiqued the shortcomings of his overall Middle East efforts.
Today, I take issue with his claim that the Middle East is more hopeful and more promising than in 2001. Consider some of the ways things have degenerated:
• Iran has nearly built nuclear weapons and appears to be planning for a devastating electromagnetic pulse (EMP) attack on the United States.
• Pakistan is on its way to becoming a nuclear-armed, Islamist rogue state.
• The price of oil reached an all-time high, only to collapse due to a US-led recession.
• Turkey went from being a stalwart ally to the most anti-American country in the world.
• Iraq remains an albatross (or a pair of shoes?) around America's neck, incurring expenses, fatalities and with an immense potential for danger.
• Rejection of Israel's existence as a Jewish state has become more widespread and virulent.
• Russia has reemerged as a hostile force in the region.
• Democratic efforts have collapsed (Egypt), increased Islamist influence (Lebanon) or paved the way for Islamists to attain power (Gaza).
• The doctrine of preemption has been discredited.
Bush's two successes, an Iraq without Saddam Hussein and a Libya without WMD, hardly balance out these failures.
FULL ARTICLE
29 December 2008
Looming Crisis with Iran (Daily Times, PAKISTAN)
Obama and the world would then have to choose between tolerating an Iran with nuclear weapons and using military force to prevent this outcome. It is the worst sort of choice, as neither option is attractive. For that reason, it is all the more important that diplomacy be recast and given one last chance
When Barack Obama takes office in January, he will be greeted by many difficult challenges, beginning with the acute economic crisis. But he will not have the luxury of focusing on this exclusively. He will also have to contend with an array of foreign policy challenges. Of these, Iran and its nuclear programme may well constitute the Obama administration’s first foreign policy crisis.
The reason is simple. Iran is well down the path to being able to enrich uranium on a large enough scale to produce a nuclear weapon. The International Atomic Energy Agency just reported that Iran may well reach this point in 2009.
FULL ARTICLE
When Barack Obama takes office in January, he will be greeted by many difficult challenges, beginning with the acute economic crisis. But he will not have the luxury of focusing on this exclusively. He will also have to contend with an array of foreign policy challenges. Of these, Iran and its nuclear programme may well constitute the Obama administration’s first foreign policy crisis.
The reason is simple. Iran is well down the path to being able to enrich uranium on a large enough scale to produce a nuclear weapon. The International Atomic Energy Agency just reported that Iran may well reach this point in 2009.
FULL ARTICLE
Gaza Strikes Challenge for Obama (Al Jazeera, QATAR)
While the Gaza Strip erupted at the weekend Barack Obama remained in holiday mode in Hawaii, sticking to his regular gym routine and otherwise relaxing.
The military action comes just three weeks before Obama is sworn in as president and poses a great challenge for a man who has promised to work for Middle East peace from his first day in office.
But although the president-elect has received briefings on the situation, David Axelrod, Obama’s top political adviser, said it would be inappropriate for the incoming chief executive to comment while George Bush is still president.
Nevertheless, he said Obama stood by his defence of Israeli actions when he visited the southern town of Sderot last July, a frequent target of Hamas rockets.
"He said then that when bombs are raining down on your citizens there is an urge to respond and act to put an end to that," Axelrod told CBS talkshow Face the Nation on Sunday.
FULL ARTICLE
The military action comes just three weeks before Obama is sworn in as president and poses a great challenge for a man who has promised to work for Middle East peace from his first day in office.But although the president-elect has received briefings on the situation, David Axelrod, Obama’s top political adviser, said it would be inappropriate for the incoming chief executive to comment while George Bush is still president.
Nevertheless, he said Obama stood by his defence of Israeli actions when he visited the southern town of Sderot last July, a frequent target of Hamas rockets.
"He said then that when bombs are raining down on your citizens there is an urge to respond and act to put an end to that," Axelrod told CBS talkshow Face the Nation on Sunday.
FULL ARTICLE
28 December 2008
Obama and Bush, Two Sides of Same Coin (Palestine Chronicle)
A recent World Public Opinion survey of 21 Muslim countries taken after Obama won the Presidency race revealed a plurality of respondents in the Palestinian occupied lands say the US definitely intended to create an independent and economically viable Palestinian state. Thirty-six percent of the Palestinians sampled, according to the survey, were certain and twenty-three percent thought it probable that the US goal was to help the Palestinians have the state they aspire to have; only thirty-seven percent were skeptical. In the rest of the Middle East countries, only eleven percent of respondents were certain that the US intended to create the Palestinian state; seven percent considered it likely; and fifty percent thought the US had no intention of helping the Palestinians. For some reasons that I do not understand, there is hope among some Palestinians that American patience with Israel will reach the breaking point, provoking a dramatic reversal of the US policies. Perhaps this is an expression of despair and feeling of abandonment by the Arab nations who became irrelevant in dealing with the Palestinians struggle and subservient to the US and Israel interests. In short, the US is the only sheriff in town.
FULL ARTICLE
FULL ARTICLE
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