08 June 2009

Kim Jong Il's Dangerous Ploy (RUSSIA)

Pyongyang's underground nuclear test on May 25 and its April 5 test-firing of a long-range missile that flew over Japan was condemned almost unanimously across the globe. It is easy to understand why. A small but extremely belligerent and reckless country has effectively undermined the existing system for resolving conflicts and providing collective security.

The nuclear militarization of North Korea creates a dangerous risk for Russia. Any nuclear explosion by North Korea in the region would mean that radiation fallout would inevitably spread to Russia's Far East. South Korea, China and Japan face the same risk.

FULL ARTICLE
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Clinton's Troubling Transformation (ISRAEL)

When Hillary Clinton was New York's junior US senator from 2001 to 2009, she was a vocal supporter of Israel. She was especially strong on Jerusalem, stating in a September 2007 position paper that she believed "Israel's right to exist in safety as a Jewish state, with defensible borders and an undivided Jerusalem as its capital, must never be questioned." Her spokesman even said "this paper is a reflection of her consistent policy... that hasn't changed." In June 2004, Clinton voted for the Senate resolution endorsing president George W. Bush's letter to prime minister Ariel Sharon that envisaged Israel retaining "major Israeli population centers" in Judea and Samaria and "defensible borders" in any final peace agreement.

FULL ARTICLE
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07 June 2009

The Power of Humility (ISRAEL)

Is there meaning and power to Barack Obama's address without President Obama? Is this solely Obama's text or is it America's new text, whoever the president might be? The answer is twofold. Obama did not have to make his Cairo speech to alter U.S. policy. Anyone looking for a policy change could have found it in his earlier declarations supporting dialogue with Iran and opposing settlements, as well as in his announcements that he would bolster the Afghanistan campaign and speed up the pullout from Iraq. Obama the politician could have allowed his actions to draw Arab and Muslim support, and show the rest of the world where he is headed.

But Obama did not plan merely to announce political change and redefine U.S. interests in the Middle East, or offer American-Muslim reconciliation. You don't need an appearance at a dim hall at Cairo University to do this. Obama is a political philosopher who seeks to forge a new constitution of international politics that can replace the old paradigm, which drew a line separating Islam from the West. The old paradigm also built the temples of Orientalism, where the Middle East was researched as a holding area of natives, which attributed wisdom to the West and backwardness to "Islam," and juxtaposed a West of diplomatic finesse and honest handshakes with an Islam of fraud and violence.

FULL ARTICLE
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06 June 2009

Reaching for Hearts and Minds (AUSTRALIA)

Barack Obama has made a bold, characteristically eloquent attempt to appeal over the heads of the gatekeepers of official opinion in the Muslim world to the great mass of moderate Muslims.

Obama called for a new partnership between the US and Muslims. He firmly restated his determination to combat extremism and violence. He admitted some mistakes in US policy. He committed himself to working for a resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian dispute. He supported human rights and specifically women's rights in Muslim countries. He skilfully drew on his life experiences to convey an appreciation of the richness of Islamic culture and history.

He also defined and defended what America is. To an audience of Muslims all across the world, many of whom sadly still believe the weirdest conspiracy theories about 9/11, Obama spoke in plain language: al-Qa'ida murdered 3000 civilians on 9/11. He defended US actions in Iraq and Afghanistan. Most importantly, he spoke of the US's "unbreakable" bonds to Israel. People tend to overlook this, but Obama has been just as forthright as George W. Bush in his public commitments to Israel.

FULL ARTICLE
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05 June 2009

Why Europeans Have It Wrong About Americans (GERMANY)

Many Europeans think that the US is full of gun-toting maniacs and illiterate morons. In part two of his series on trans-Atlantic differences, American historian Peter Baldwin shows why Europeans have this -- and plenty of other facts about America -- plain wrong.

In a three-part essay for SPIEGEL ONLINE, American historian Peter Baldwin argues that the EU and the US are much more similar than they think. You can read part one of his essay here.

When compared to Europe, the US welfare state is often portrayed as miserly and undeveloped. And so it is, if the standard is taken to be Sweden or Germany. But if we look at the span of social policy across Europe, a different picture emerges.

Of course, America has no universal system of health insurance -- Michael Moore's 2006 film Sicko will ensure that no one forgets that. Some 15 percent of the American population is not covered. There is no question that being uninsured is unfair and brutal, nor that the lack of universal health coverage is the most pressing problem of American domestic politics. The true disgrace of American health care is that infant mortality is higher than anywhere in Europe. President Obama seems determined not to let the financial crisis sidetrack his promise to improve access to health insurance.

FULL ARTICLE
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Obama's Likud Trap (HONG KONG)

There is a famous episode in the classic comedy show, Fawlty Towers in which the British hotelier played by John Cleese prepares for a party of German guests with the invocation "Don't mention the war!"

Obama actually came to Cairo and pulled this off. Speaking on the eve of the 42nd anniversary of the Six-Day War in which Israel actually occupied the Occupied Territories, he gave a long and considered oration which did not mention the war that gave rise to the occupation and whose humiliation is still seared in Egyptian memory.

It was that war that heralded the US's seemingly infinite forbearance for Israeli actions, as proven by the heavy handed, and continuing, attempts not to mention the Israeli attempt to sink the USS Liberty.

FULL ARTICLE
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04 June 2009

Obama's Speech to the Muslim World

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Obama's Message to the Muslim World

By Barack Obama

I am honored to be in the timeless city of Cairo, and to be hosted by two remarkable institutions. For over a thousand years, Al-Azhar has stood as a beacon of Islamic learning, and for over a century, Cairo University has been a source of Egypt's advancement. Together, you represent the harmony between tradition and progress. I am grateful for your hospitality, and the hospitality of the people of Egypt. I am also proud to carry with me the goodwill of the American people, and a greeting of peace from Muslim communities in my country: assalaamu alaykum.

We meet at a time of tension between the United States and Muslims around the world – tension rooted in historical forces that go beyond any current policy debate. The relationship between Islam and the West includes centuries of co-existence and cooperation, but also conflict and religious wars. More recently, tension has been fed by colonialism that denied rights and opportunities to many Muslims, and a Cold War in which Muslim-majority countries were too often treated as proxies without regard to their own aspirations. Moreover, the sweeping change brought by modernity and globalization led many Muslims to view the West as hostile to the traditions of Islam.

FULL ARTICLE
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03 June 2009

The Trans-Atlantic Frenemies (GERMANY)

Barack Obama is only passing through Germany on his trip to Europe later this week and does not plan to hold substantial talks with Angela Merkel. The White House views the chancellor as difficult and Germany is increasingly being left out of the loop.

The most meaningful gifts given between world leaders aren't bouquets or porcelain tea services, but rather the flattery they extend to each other. And the American president has showered the German chancellor with a number of highly valued niceties.

Indeed, when the president described her approach to political problems as being not only "smart," but also "one of a kind," the chancellor beamed like it was Christmas morning.

There's just one problem with the flattery: The man doing the talking was George W. Bush. But these days, in the Washington of Barack Obama, an entirely different tone is adopted when talking about German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

FULL ARTICLE
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02 June 2009

The Trouble with Cairo (CANADA)

Barack Obama has speech problems.

True, he delivers a message mellifluously. But even before giving a major address to the Muslim world this Thursday, America's communicator-in-chief sounds confused.

Consider his choice of setting. Cairo, according to White House press secretary Robert Gibbs, “in many ways represents the heart of the Arab world.” Confusion No. 1: Arabs and Muslims are interchangeable.

They're not. Fewer than 20 per cent of Muslims live in the Middle East. Cairo is no more the heart of the Muslim world than Jakarta is.

Indeed, Indonesia would have been far richer soil for this occasion. It's the most populous Muslim country, boasting as many believers as the entire Arab region. It's a crucible of religious moderation; a national election in April affirmed the upper hand of secular parties.

FULL ARTICLE
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01 June 2009

Can the UK Afford its Washington Ties? (LEBANON)

A week, they say, is a long time in politics. And so it seems like an eternity since British Prime Minister Gordon Brown proclaimed to the nation that he had a "moral compass" that guided all his decisions and underpinned his policies. Today, less than two years on, his moral compass looks more like a defective traffic direction finder, the kind you rip out of your car because it can't tell right from left, or in Brown's case, right from wrong.

In case you missed it, the United Kingdom is enduring an unending moral sclerosis within Parliament. Members of Parliament from all parties have been exposed for scandalously misusing their generous expense allowances to line their own pockets, enriching themselves and their families. The public outrage is such that some parliamentarians have returned money or decided not to seek re-election. So far, a minister and the Speaker of the House of Commons have been forced out of office.

FULL ARTICLE
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If Israel "Defeats" Obama? (ISRAEL)

You had to read it twice to believe it: "Criticism of the United States in Jerusalem." A senior Israeli official warns: "We are disappointed." The fly hovering about is complaining that the elephant is not obeying its orders. What chutzpah on the part of Barack Obama. He just entered the White House and already has something to say - about how many new houses we are building in Ofra, and about when we will dismantle the walls in the "illegal outposts," which are already beginning to disintegrate because of old age.

Instead of dismantling settlements, he would do better to dismantle the Iranian nuclear program. Otherwise Jerusalem will reassess its special relationship with Washington, and will reconsider its commitment to ensuring the qualitative advantage of the United States. If this situation continues, we may even stop vetoing anti-American decisions in the United Nations Security Council.

FULL ARTICLE
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31 May 2009

America Must Engage North Korea (JAPAN)

On the question of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, better known as (a) North Korea, (b) notorious charter member of former U.S. President George W. Bush's "axis of evil" and (c) pain-in-the-neck threat to world peace and stability, here are a few humble observations in light of the fact that, basically, no one really knows what to do about North Korea, including China:

• First, you do NOT need to scramble to the telephone to get the local contractor to sink that bomb shelter into your backyard — not just yet, anyway. In its current state of evolution, North Korea is still far from being a serious world-threatening nuclear power.

It is true, the trend lines are ominous: In recent days this much unloved regime has test-fired several missiles and appears to have detonated yet another underground nuclear explosion of unclear size and uncertain sophistication. Even so, this all amounts to a mean flurry of activity from a regime claiming the adherence of some 23 million residents — almost every last one being ethnic Korean and too many being mainly hungry.

FULL ARTICLE
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Obama's Bold Settlements (LEBANON)

The emergence of Zionist-Jewish colonialism - otherwise euphemistically called "Israeli settlements" - as the litmus test of relations between Israel and the United States is an important indicator of how quickly the Obama administration has moved to reposition itself in the Middle East.

The latest statements by President Barack Obama and Secretary of State Hilary Clinton represent a dramatic change in American policy rhetoric, which now unambiguously calls for a total freeze on settlements, natural growth, "outposts" and anything else the Israelis do when they transfer their population into colonies built on Arab lands occupied in 1967. Washington has dropped its previous wishy-washy practice of merely calling colonies and settlements "unhelpful" to peacemaking, and has used dramatic moments to press its point to Israel and the world.

FULL ARTICLE
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30 May 2009

Middle East Hangs on Obama's Words (UK)

Elections in Lebanon and Iran; a long-promised Obama speech to the Muslim world in Cairo; summits with Saudi Arabia and Egypt, and a growing rift between the US and Israel. The Middle East is heading into one of those watershed periods that could define the region for years to come.

The countdown begins on Wednesday when Barack Obama travels to Riyadh and then to Cairo for a speech to try to bridge the divide between Islam and the west. His officials are giving little away about the content but seem definite on one point.

The president will not use his Cairo platform to spell out the details of his revamped, amalgamated plan for an Arab-Israeli settlement, though he may touch on Palestine. Instead a more broad-brush approach is expected.

FULL ARTICLE
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29 May 2009

Obama’s Guantánamo Dilemma (IRAN)

By giving his most detailed speech so far on terrorist detainees on Thursday, Barack Obama was hoping to persuade others to drop the subject.

Unfortunately for Mr. Obama, who wants to direct the conversation to more forward-looking topics, such as healthcare reform and a possible Arab-Israeli peace process, the turmoil surrounding treatment of alleged terrorists is likely to persist.

That is partly because he has adopted a messy position himself. On the one hand Mr. Obama has said he will close the Guantánamo detention centre by next January. On the other, his administration continues to use George W. Bush’s definition of the “war on terror” to detain the most dangerous ones indefinitely – just not on Cuban soil, or American, if Congress continues to get its way.

FULL ARTICLE
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Medvedev Hopeful About Obama Visit (RUSSIA)

President Dmitry Medvedev expressed optimism Saturday about advancing relations with the United States during President Barack Obama’s visit to Moscow in July even on divisive topics such as NATO’s eastward expansion.

Medvedev again criticized NATO’s ongoing military exercises in Georgia, which Russia defeated in a brief war in August, saying such drills were clearly “provocative” and threatened stability in the region.

He expressed hope, however, that he would have a fruitful discussion on security cooperation with Obama when he visits Moscow on July 6 to 8.

FULL ARTICLE
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28 May 2009

Friends In Deed (INDIA)

The deadly bomb blast that killed dozens in Lahore yesterday once again underlines the grave threat posed by extremists in Pakistan to the very
survival of that country. The incident reiterates the grievous risk that a Pakistan speedily spinning out of control poses to its neighbours and to global security. Even as the Pakistani establishment under pressure from and with the help of the US fights the Taliban in its territory, it is increasingly becoming clear that what is being done is not going to be enough to restore stability.

Leading powers, in Pakistan's neighbourhood and away, simply cannot afford to leave it to America alone to manage the crisis in Pakistan. In this context, reports that America has solicited the help of Pakistan's long-time allies, China and Saudi Arabia, to help Pakistan counter the militant threat is welcome news. It reflects a growing understanding in the Obama administration that China, which has equipped Pakistan militarily for decades, and Saudi Arabia, which is a major source of funds for Pakistan, could wield critical influence over our neighbour.

FULL ARTICLE
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27 May 2009

The World Watches Obama (UK)

It's become fashionable to argue that the US and the international community, however that entity is defined, can do little to rein in maverick, gun-totin', bomb-throwing North Korea. Bill Clinton tried being nice, sending his secretary of state, Madeleine Albright, to Pyongyang, and that didn't work. George Bush tried being horrid, talked about the "axis of evil", then switched back to nice. That had no lasting impact, either.

South Korea, closest to the problem and with the most to lose (and perhaps gain) tried summit meetings, economic zones and other inducements. But its so-called "sunshine policy" was rained off as the North repeatedly reverted to gloomy, aggressive type. The UN security council tried sanctions, then more sanctions. Now Russia says it is contemplating even tougher sanctions. Don't hold your breath.

FULL ARTICLE
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26 May 2009

Nuremberg Precedent For Bush Trial (JAPAN)

The Nuremberg Principles, a set of guidelines established after World War II to try Nazi Party members, were developed to determine what constitutes a war crime. The principles can also be applied today when considering the conditions that led to the Iraq war and, in the process, to the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people, many of them children, and to the devastation of a country's infrastructure.

In January 2003, a group of American law professors warned President George W. Bush that he and senior officials of his government could be prosecuted for war crimes if their military tactics violated international humanitarian law. The group, led by the New York-based Center for Constitutional Rights, sent similar warnings to British Prime Minister Tony Blair and to Canadian Prime Minister Jean Chretien.

FULL ARTICLE
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Iran Courts the US's Allies (HONG KONG)

As the prospect of much-discussed dialogue between the United States and Iran on Afghanistan languishes ahead of Iran's June 12 presidential elections, Tehran is not wasting any time in deepening its ties with Pakistan and Afghanistan. A trilateral mini-summit in Tehran over the weekend brought the leaders of the countries together and culminated in a comprehensive "Tehran declaration".

It could be termed an anti-extremism summit, as the primary focus of the Tehran talks was regional coordination in the fight against terrorism and extremism. Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei told the visiting Afghan and Pakistani presidents, Hamid Karzai and Asif Ali Zardari, that "we [Iran] strongly support trilateral cooperation".

FULL ARTICLE
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25 May 2009

An Offer Pyongyang Can't Refuse (JAPAN)

Past U.S.-North Korea negotiations on nuclear issues can be roughly classified into two types.

The first type relates to the Framework Agreement of the Clinton administration. The basic assessment from documents of the period was that a military confrontation might result in nearly 1 million military and civilian casualties, so the only option was compromise. The main points of compromise were that North Korea would freeze operations at the Yongbyon nuclear facility under the inspections of the International Atomic Energy Agency and, in return, would receive supplies of heavy fuel oil and construction of a light-water nuclear reactor for power generation. North Korea abided by this compromise from 1994 to 2002.

FULL ARTICLE
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23 May 2009

U.S. Fighting the Wrong War (JAPAN)

The deeper Pakistan has dug itself into a jihadist dungeon over the past decade and more, the more the United States has gotten involved in that country, including in propping up its tottering economy through generous bilateral and international aid, macro-managing Pakistani politics and pampering the powerful, meddling military establishment.

This political approach contrasts starkly with a stepped-up military approach in Afghanistan, where currently the U.S. focus is on a troop "surge" and the establishment of local-level civil militias.

FULL ARTICLE
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Wages Of Incoherence (INDIA)

US secretary of state Hillary Clinton has astonished the world with her rare candour. She has described US policy towards Pakistan on the last 30 years as incoherent.

She has bemoaned that, after accepting Pakistan's support in the Afghanistan war in the 1980s, the US imposed all kinds of sanctions on it. True, US policy was incoherent. But Clinton should be cautioned against accepting an incoherent explanation for it and overlooking what led to US sanctions. It would also help if the US came clean on the Central Intelligence Agency's (CIA) relationship with notorious proliferator A Q Khan.

FULL ARTICLE
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22 May 2009

Obama Blowing it on Iran (UK)

Has President Obama inadvertently given Iran the green light to develop an atom bomb? I only ask because it appears to be the logical conclusion to be drawn from his announcement this week that he is giving Iran until the end of the year to decide whether or not to co-operate with the West over its controversial nuclear programme.

In all the furore over MPs' expenses, it is hardly surprising that the implications of Mr Obama's highly revealing comment have gone unnoticed in this country. But taken at face value, it could have a major impact on how the international crisis over Iran's nuclear programme plays out.

FULL ARTICLE
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21 May 2009

The 'Peace Plan' That Isn't (ISRAEL)

During his last visit, US envoy George Mitchell disclosed that the Obama administration looked to the so-called "Arab peace plan" (a.k.a. the Saudi initiative) of 2002 as a starting point for peace between Israel and the Arab world, including the Palestinians. Mitchell's statement reflected a developing policy approach which is gathering steam in Washington these days - as evidenced, among other things, also by some of US President Barack Obama's statements and answers in his joint press conference with Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu.

In fact, in general terms a regional approach also is Netanyahu's preferred approach. Both leaders in their one-on-one session discussed ways and means to buttress the Israel-Arab peace tracks with a participation of others in the Arab world, or as Netanyahu put it: "I would like to broaden the circle of peace to include others in the Arab World."

FULL ARTICLE
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20 May 2009

US and Israel at Odds (QATAR)

Differences over how to deal with Iran are likely to dominate Tuesday's meeting between Barack Obama, the US president, and Binyamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, at the White House on May 18.

Obama has taken a softer line on Iran's alleged nuclear ambitions, emphasising diplomacy over sabre-rattling and threats of military action.

Further, the Obama administration wants Netanyahu to engage with the Palestinians and work quickly towards a two-state solution as a way of defusing the perceived threat from Tehran.

Netanyahu has shown little interest in reviving dialogue with the Palestinians and has still not endorsed a two-state solution.

FULL ARTICLE
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19 May 2009

Bringing Hope to the Middle East (UK)

Israel recently celebrated 61 years of existence. On any historical scale, 61 years are not much. A little pixel in the timeline of modern history. And, indeed, most Israelis have their doubts about whether Israel can survive another 61 years.

However, these Israelis do not offer a path that Israel can take to avoid this grim perspective. The last generation of Israelis has seen little change in the makeup of parliament, government and the supreme court. The routine of talking peace in Washington, while expanding settlements in the West Bank has become our way of life over the past 20 years.

FULL ARTICLE
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Obama Trips Over Bush Torture Legacy (GERMANY)

There are precisely 44 photos that put the national security of the United States of America at risk -- not quite four dozen images that threaten the lives of soldiers in Afghanistan and Iraq. They are images that are best kept from the global public.

US President Barack Obama has seen them. And last week, addressing reporters on the South Lawn of the White House, he decreed that they should be kept under lock and key. The images, he said in his brief yet firm address, could "reignite" anti-American sentiments.

Apparently the photos are horrifying, even worse than those from the Abu Ghraib prison in Iraq, made infamous by the first batch of torture images published in 2004. Some depict US soldiers driving a tank toward shackled prisoners, leading them to believe that they are about to die. Others show soldiers standing over the corpses of Afghan men. There is one photo of a soldier holding a pistol to the head of a shackled and hooded prisoner.

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18 May 2009

Tomorrow We'll Be Nasty (CANADA)

How will Barack Obama's pursuit of his aims sit with Canadians once the rosy afterglow of the charismatic leader's ascension to power wears off? In particular, how will his presidency sit with the great Canadian anti-American coalition, many Liberals, the New Democratic Party, the Greens, the Bloc Québécois, and all those raging grannies of whatever age who despise the United States and all its works?

FULL ARTICLE
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15 May 2009

Obama, A True Friend (ISRAEL)

Anyone returning to the United States for the first time since Barack Obama's great victory cannot help immediately noticing the quiet revolution taking place there. The national agenda has changed, the public discourse is different, the neoconservative cynicism seems to have been erased from daily life, and George Bush's closed horizon has opened up. Therefore, it would be wise for Israeli leaders, from both right and left, to read Obama's autobiography closely.

It is difficult to imagine life stories, worldviews or mind-sets more different from each other than those of the U.S. president and senior Israeli politicians. If there are patterns of behavior that Obama is not fond of, to put it mildly, they are those that characterize Israeli politicians. The Israelis, from Shimon Peres to Ehud Barak, Benjamin Netanyahu, Ehud Olmert and Avigdor Lieberman, all tend to view the world in a one-dimensional fashion. They have an unshakable belief that all they do and believe is right under any circumstances and at all times. They look down on those who are weaker than them, but at the same time sink easily into whining and self-pity. Israelis, like spoiled children, always believe they deserve everything, immediately.

FULL ARTICLE
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Overcoming the Hobbesian Instinct (RUSSIA)

An ancient Chinese proverb says, "Making a prediction is difficult -- especially in regard to the future." I would go a step further and say, "We have absolutely no idea what the future has in store for us." There are plenty of instances in the last century of how unexpected, epochal events in global affairs have caught us completely by surprise.

In his memoirs of a trip through Europe in 1911, British historian Arnold Toynbee noted that Europe had enjoyed 40 years of peace and that the borders between states had effectively been eliminated. After traveling from one country to another, Toynbee returned home in high spirits, confident that Europeans had a bright future of integration, peace and prosperity. Just three years later, World War I broke out, and 20 years after that -- World War II. Neither the brilliant historian Toynbee nor most of his contemporaries could have imagined this tragic chain of events.

FULL ARTICLE
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13 May 2009

The Curious Sacking of Gen McKiernan (UK)

It seems harsh to suggest the Pentagon top brass don't know what they're doing. But those who care to read the transcript of the press conference at which the sacking of the top American general in Afghanistan was announced may find that conclusion hard to resist. "In some ways we're learning as we go here," said Admiral Mike Mullen, chairman of the joint chiefs. It was not a reassuring admission.

The public defenestration of General David McKiernan, a distinguished career officer who took command in Kabul less than one year ago, was brutal in that cold, callous way peculiar to American officialdom. More to the point, it remains largely unexplained. "We can and must do better ... We have a new policy set by our president, a new strategy, a new mission ... I believe new military leadership is also needed," said Robert Gates, the defence secretary.

FULL ARTICLE
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12 May 2009

Obama's Tax Threat (IRELAND)

The alarm bells should have gone off loud and clear when US president Barack Obama named Ireland as one of three countries where the activities of US multinationals and their overseas tax payment policies were being scrutinised.

The relatively sanguine reaction in Ireland is puzzling. If there is one aspect to Obama so far it is that he means what he says when he pursues a policy.

There is an element of whistling past the graveyard in my opinion in the Irish reaction to the Obama proposals, a kind of “it’ll be all right on the night” approach. That could be a major mistake.

The reality with Obama is that every major campaign promise, including this one to reform American tax policy as it affects overseas earnings has been followed up in a methodical and direct manner.

Healthcare, reform of the financial system, immigration reform are being approached in a similar way. He is a new kind of politician, one utterly devoid of sentiment as one insider characterised him to me. There will be no special pleadings or deals as far as he is concerned.

What this means for the Ireland/US relationship is important.

FULL ARTICLE
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11 May 2009

Obama Changing the Rules of Mideast Pressure (ISRAEL)

It is not hard to imagine what a tumult it would stir in Jerusalem if the United States decided to temporarily ease the pressure on Iran regarding its nuclear program. Or if President Barack Obama ordered a freeze, for the time being, on the sanctions against Syria. God help the U.S. administration if it even considers lifting the boycott on the Hamas rulers in the Gaza Strip before the Palestinian group agrees to a two-state solution within the 1967 borders. And how nice that Congress is delaying the emergency assistance package to the Palestinian Authority until a new government is formed in Ramallah, in order to ensure that it's one we like.

International pressure on neighbors has always been a welcome and even essential tool. Without pressure from the outside why would Iran give up, voluntarily, its nuclear capability? If the United States does not pressure Syria to disengage from terrorist groups, what reason does Damascus have to clash with Hamas and Hezbollah? Were it not for the pressure applied by the Reagan administration on the Palestine Liberation Organization, the Palestinian National Council would not have declared a cessation of the armed struggle against Israel and would not have adopted UN Resolution 242. Presumably Benjamin Netanyahu will not complain about pressure that the Obama administration might apply against the Palestinians; for example, to push them to recognize Israel as a state of the Jewish people.

qFULL ARTICLE
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10 May 2009

The Secret of His Success (UAE)

No other American president in modern memory has faced a learning curve as steep as the one Barack Obama has encountered. Three years ago in April, 2006, the Dow Jones Industrial Average traded between 11,017 and 11,468.

It wasn’t until 18 months later in October, 2007 that the Dow Jones averages peaked at 14,269 and began the downward spiral with a 55 per cent drop to 6,443 on March 6, 2009. By the time he took office, America’s financial industry was in chaos, credit markets were frozen, housing values were plummeting and the economy was in its worst contraction since the Great Depression. Add to that Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq, Iran and North Korea, and you get an extraordinary set of challenges.

And yet, by most measures, President Obama’s first 100 days have been successful. The economy remains weak, of course, but he has put forward a series of initiatives to stabilise the capital and housing markets, proposed longer-term programmes to create sustained growth, adjusted America’s military priorities in Afghanistan and Iraq, and begun a process of reaching out to the world and changing America’s image. These are only overtures, and naturally much will depend on how things turn out — in the economy, in Pakistan, in Iraq. But so far, any president would be envious of Obama’s accomplishments.

FULL ARTICLE
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Intellectual Torturers (PAKISTAN)

If we are to understand why some Americans accepted administering torture so easily, we need not look for some ancestral hatred or fear of Muslims and Arabs. No, the cause is far worse.

The top-secret memoranda released by the Obama administration concerning torture practices in CIA prisons shed new light on a fundamental question: how is it that people acting in the name of the United States government could so easily accept the idea of torturing the detainees in their charge?

The newly published documents do not disclose the very facts of torture, which were already well known by whomever wanted to know them. But they do reveal a great deal of information about how the torture sessions unfolded and how the agents involved perceived them.

FULL ARTICLE
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08 May 2009

US & Pakistan: Trying to Do Better (PAKISTAN)

Differences on approach will remain between the US and Pakistan, but perhaps we can now build on the fact that America’s national interest is tied to the stability of a Pakistan that is able to satisfy the basic needs of its people

President Zardari’s visit to Washington is far from over, but we have a good idea by now of the thrust of discussions with the Obama administration and what probably lies ahead in terms of the obligations and responsibilities the participants have agreed to assume.

Much of this will be informed speculation since so far no one has provided any detailed briefing on what exactly was decided.

Clearly, political and security-related goals are the ones that will have dominated discussions, but here I intend to focus on what we can see emerging in the economic sphere. In our current situation, it would appear that security-related cooperation, which will address the shortcomings in our counter-insurgency capabilities, is the priority but there is a clear realisation, as was apparent from President Obama’s remarks about the fragility of the present government in Pakistan, that the inability of governments in both countries to address the basic needs of the people and the growing disparity between the haves and have-nots lie at the root of the discontent that fuels insurgency. This problem needs to be addressed with the same urgency as the security situation.

FULL ARTICLE
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07 May 2009

Obama and Pakistan (CANADA)

Today, Pakistan's President drops in on America's. There will be forced smiles and fine gifts, but stern words must also be exchanged.

Pakistan's Asif Ali Zardari seems more interested in demonizing India than in defeating the Taliban. Barack Obama can't afford to humour such misplaced priorities. How difficult will it be for him to extract serious change out of his Pakistani peer, fair-weather ally and duly elected, deeply compromised pain in the neck? I got a taste of the odds stacked against meaningful change myself when I confronted Pakistan's former president, Pervez Musharraf, at a recent gathering.

General Musharraf, retired from both electoral politics and army service, owes no fealty to anyone. And he has never held a candle to the corruption that plagues his successor. That's precisely why our encounter proved so revealing - and so damned depressing.

FULL ARTICLE
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America Will Rule Post-Crisis World (UK)

I am just back from Washington where the green shoots of recovery have sprouted into a jungle on Wall Street, if not yet on main street or in other countries. I was addressing a meeting of US and European diplomats to survey the geopolitical horizons.

As the world economy gradually returns to something approaching normality after the catastrophe triggered by the Lehmans bankruptcy on September 15 last year, thoughts naturally turn to the longer-term effects of the crisis.

Economic models are never good at predicting turning points in cycles, but in these conditions they are completely useless. To assess the long-term political and ideological impact, it makes more sense to consider two scenarios.

In the first, which has dominated thinking throughout the crisis, the deflationary forces of the credit crunch prevail and the world sinks into a recession lasting many years, with unemployment soaring to levels last seen in the 1930s. In that case, this crisis really will mark the end of US dominance, not only as a global power, but also as an economic model and source of political inspiration. But rather than neatly shifting the mantle of global leadership to China or maybe Europe - if we take seriously the triumphalist rhetoric of President Sarkozy after the London G20 summit about the death of the Anglo-Saxon model - a prolonged recession would usher in chaos.

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06 May 2009

Jack Kemp vs. Anti-Semitism (ISRAEL)

Jack Kemp, who passed away on May 1, will be widely remembered as a prominent voice of conservatism who shaped the tax-cut policies of the Reagan administration. But he also deserves to be remembered for his willingness to cross party lines to challenge a Republican administration on the issue of anti-Semitism.

Throughout his life, Kemp defied the old stereotype of conservatives who were indifferent to the concerns of racial or religious minorities.

As an American Football League star in 1965, he pressured the league to move its all-star game out of New Orleans because African-American players were excluded from the city's nightclubs. As secretary of housing and urban development from 1988 to 1992, he promoted projects to help disadvantaged inner-city residents. And in 2004, he played a leading role in a crucial fight against the rising tide of global anti-Semitism.

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What Obama Could Learn From Karzai (HONG KONG)

In retrospect, United States President Barack Obama did a great favor to Afghan President Hamid Karzai by excluding him from his charmed circle of movers and shakers who would wield clout with the new administration in Washington. Obama was uncharacteristically rude to Karzai by not even conversing with him by telephone for weeks after he was sworn in, even though Afghanistan was the number one foreign policy priority of his presidency.

Vice President Joseph Biden traveled to Kabul to let it be known to Karzai that he was a fallen angel and unless Karzai mended his ways and did that soon enough, the US would rather be rid of him once and for all. Biden made it brutally plain that as a surrogate the US had installed in power, it could as easily banish him from grace.

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04 May 2009

The Burden of US-Iran Engagement (LEBANON)

President Barack Obama has made outreach to the Islamic Republic of Iran a foreign policy centerpiece of his administration. At his inauguration, he promised that if adversaries of the United States would unclench their fists then Washington would extend a hand. Then, in his first major television interview, he told Al-Arabiya satellite television, "It is important for us to be willing to talk to Iran, to express very clearly where our differences are, but [also] where there are potential avenues for progress. And we will over the next several months be laying out our general framework and approach."

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02 May 2009

A Case for the Three Amigos (CANADA)

A crisis often presents governments with an opportunity that can be either seized or missed. One lost chance came shortly after 9/11, when Mexico asked Canada to jointly negotiate a smart border agreement with the United States, as a way of ensuring that our respective land borders be kept as open as possible under Homeland Security concerns to trade in goods and services. Canada rejected the idea of working together in favour of a separate bilateral negotiation with Washington, mainly because it felt its own relationship with the United States was so special that including Mexico would only contaminate the process with issues extraneous to Ottawa's agenda. The result: two nearly identical agreements, signed six months apart, that could have been one of the first trilateral successes of the post-NAFTA era but that, instead, emphasized our differences.

Today, we face another such opportunity. We can only hope that, this time, Canada seizes the moment rather than following the misguided idea that excluding Mexico from the common North American agenda is in its best interest. The swine flu pandemic is an ideal issue on which we should be working together, not only to halt the spread of the virus within our own region and to third countries but to ensure that solidarity among us avoids the adoption of damaging defensive measures by others that will negatively affect trade, tourism and communications to and from all of North America.

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30 April 2009

Assessing Obama's "Report Card" (QATAR)

The first 100 days in office is traditionally a honeymoon period for US presidents.

The marker is an artificial deadline perpetuated by the media to have an excuse to issue a school style "report card" on a new president and may not reflect how the rest of a president's term will unfold.

Nonetheless, it gives the public a chance to get a sense of the president's direction as he selects his team and finds his stride.

Barack Obama has already made his name as one of the most active presidents in US history during this period.

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After the First 100 Days (UAE)

Analysts and experts usually analyze the performance of any newly elected president hundred days after he assumes power. They believe that this period is enough to assess his performance, as it allows him to draw his agenda, choose his aides, and review the proposed dossiers at the domestic and foreign fronts.

Attention is currently shifting, in an unprecedented manner, to President Obama who has completed the first hundred days of his tenure. This is because Obama's personality is exciting and worth analyzing, while his policies influence all the hot files in the world.

At the personal level, the Afro-American president of the United States still enjoys a dominant popularity, supported by his continued appearance in the media and direct communication with millions of Americans who volunteered in his electoral campaign. This popularity is also strengthened by his wife Michele. Together, they constitute the couple that was the most admired and appreciated in the White House ever since late President John Kennedy.

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100 Points of Light (INDIA)

Today marks the end of 100 days since US President Barack Obama’s inauguration. There were many factors about him and his campaign that appealed to most Americans. This included his use of technology, age and oratory skills. Crucially, his promise of change quickly gained popularity at home and abroad. Whether such change has been incorporated into US foreign policy is questionable.

One of the foreign policy highlights of the Obama administration has been the rapid engagement with Muslims and Muslim-dominated States. Policies such as the closure of Guantanamo Bay and Central Intelligence Agency ghost prisons, among others, have been both a sign of good faith and a message of change. Nevertheless, Obama has failed to go the extra mile by refusing to communicate with terrorist groups, despite Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal praising his approach to the West Asia conflict.

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28 April 2009

Faltering U.S. Strategy (PAKISTAN)

The new US policymakers led by President Obama must now shelve the messy canvas that was left for them by George W Bush. That canvas is in shreds and beyond repair. In order to redeem the image of the great American nation in the eyes of the world the Obama's administration will have to carve a new legacy for themselves distinctly different from the Bush legacy.

First, A resolution must come forth from all the stakeholders—i.e., the USA, the UN Security Council, NATO, the UK, other major EU and NATO countries, and from Russia, China, Iraq, Iran, Pakistan, Afghanistan and India—that they all resolve to bring peace to southwest Asia by replacing military activity with developmental activity. A unilateral ceasefire should be announced by US and NATO Forces saying that military operations, henceforth, will only be undertaken in self-defence. Simultaneously, the offer of peace talks must be made to the Taliban.

Secondly, The USA must also announce unilaterally that after the preliminary rounds of peace talks it shall relocate its forces in a non-combat posture as a prelude to an eventual and complete military evacuation within a foreseeable time frame.

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GM: Better Late Than Never (CANADA)

General Motors Corp. is wise not to have waited until the 11th hour to deliver a strenuous restructuring plan, as Chrysler LLC has done. General Motors has thus left itself a little more than a month to haggle over and refine the specifics, before the end-of-May deadline imposed by the U.S. government.

Chrysler is up against a similar deadline only a few days away, but the company may have scraped through by reaching agreements with the Canadian Auto Workers and the United Auto Workers.

The current upshot for the two insolvent automobile manufacturers is curious. General Motors is in effect orchestrating its own nationalization by the U.S. government, while Chrysler is submitting to a foreign takeover by Fiat SpA, in obedience to that same government.

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27 April 2009

A New Partnership with Jakarta (INDONESIA)

One could say that observing Indonesia-US relations has become more interesting since the Obama administration came into power, particularly after the visit of US state secretary Hillary Clinton to Jakarta in February 2009.

Indonesia-US relations have been and will always be a very important factor for both countries' foreign affairs. As the largest country in Southeast Asia, Indonesia is home to the largest Muslim population in the world and is the fourth most populous country in the world.

At the same time, as President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono mentioned during a speech at the London School of Economic and Political Sciences, Indonesia's history has never been an easy one, an epic story of survival against the odds.

However, such a picture of disorder and uncertainty no longer captures the Indonesia of today. Having overcome its trials and tribulations, Indonesia is now a resilient country that plays an active role in many strategic international issues such as climate change, interfaith dialogue, democracy as well as peace and security.

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A Canadian Model? (CANADA)

I grew up during a time when it was said that everything that happened in the United States would eventually come to Canada. For me, the most evocative annual illustration of this was the auto show at Toronto's Exhibition Place, where Detroit's latest contributions to mobility and status were put on display for aspirational Ontarians to drool over. I beamed with pride the day my dad brought home a spanking new 1955 Chevrolet Bel Air two-tone salmon and grey convertible. We were rich - just as rich as my Michigan cousins.

Even beyond the world of commerce, as the tempestuous sixties began to take shape, the idealism of the civil-rights and anti-Vietnam War movements, both obviously products of America and its political culture, spilled over the border. My generation of Canadians, especially those of us who were the first in our families to go to university, joyfully brought to campus ersatz versions of the idealism our American baby boomer cousins displayed.

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26 April 2009

King, Queen Return Home From US Visit (JORDAN)

AMMAN (JT) -Their Majesties King Abdullah and Queen Rania returned on Sunday following a several-day working visit to the US.

Meanwhile, King Abdullah received a letter yesterday from Kuwaiti Prime Minister Sheikh Nasir Al Mohammad Al Ahmad Al Sabah on means to foster bilateral ties in different fields and developments in the region.

The letter was handed by Kuwaiti Ambassador in Amman Sheikh Feisal Al Hmoud Al Malek Al Sabah to Royal Court Chief Nasser Lozi. In the US, King Abdullah met with US President Barack Obama last Tuesday and with several US administration officials and congressmen through Friday.

Discussions covered means to strengthen ties and efforts to bring about peace in the region. A summit held with Obama during the visit focused on means to bring about a comprehensive peace in the Middle East and resolve the Palestinian-Israeli conflict on the basis of the two-state solution.

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A Message Obama Can’t Ignore (EGYPT)

AMMAN: President Barack Obama received a message from the Arab world when he met King Abdallah of Jordan in Washington earlier this month. It was an important message that the American president and his administration should appreciate because of its timing and content.

The message that King Abdallah carried was carefully phrased in Amman on 10 April when six Arab foreign ministers met along with the Arab League Secretary-General Amr Moussa. The message outlined the Arab position on the peace process as stated and reiterated in the Arab peace initiative. It also warned against Israel’s policies of expanding settlements and changing the nature of Arab East Jerusalem.

The Arab position is not new. Since the peace initiative was adopted in Beirut in 2002, the Arab side has adhered to it in spite of Israeli vacillation and rejection of its basic tenets.

Obama and his aides heard warnings that unless the two-state solution is implemented soon, the Arab-Israeli conflict will enter a critical phase. Arab leaderships are under pressure to abandon the peace offering if Israel continues to ignore it.

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25 April 2009

Ousting a Terrible Enfant (RUSSIA)

There is a good reason the administration of U.S. President Barack Obama has not rushed to defend Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili, who is essentially under 24-hour siege by angry protestors. As the opposition demonstrations continue in Tbilisi, with thousands of Georgians expressing their rage against the authoritarian regime, the mood in Washington has shifted.

No longer the poster boy for democracy, Saakashvili is now seen as an irresponsible enfant terrible whose political capital has been squandered by foolish mistakes and a stubborn refusal to deal with Russia.

One of Obama's first priorities will be to repair the damage to U.S.-Russian relations. He is a healer by nature, not a divider. Obama and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton clearly see Saakashvili as a liability and an unsavory leftover from the past. Saakashvili should resign from power and return the government back to the Georgian people.

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Critics Unleash the F-word at Obama (CANADA)

The F-word jumped out at me as I read the Savannah Morning News during a recent visit to this historic Deep South city.

It was buried in a column by syndicated conservative commentator Charles Krauthammer, who wrote: "Some find in this descent into large-scale industrial policy a whiff of 1930s-style fascist corporatism."

Krauthammer was writing about the pressure U.S. President Barack Obama put on GM boss Rick Wagoner to quit.

While he offered a tepid disavowal, adding, "I have my doubts" to the comment, I was stunned that a columnist had dared to link an American president to fascism.

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Obama's Torture Policy (IRAN)

Obama authorized the release of graphic “torture memos” that outlined the harsh interrogation tactics the CIA used during the administration of George W. Bush, but getting the abuses behind him is turning out to be more complicated than it may have seemed at first.

The disclosures have divided Obama’s administration; some intelligence officials argued against the release. Also, Obama’s decision to shield from prosecution those who carried out the practices is being challenged by human-rights activists and some Democrats.

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Obama’s Energy Independence (KOREA)


Thirty years ago then-president Jimmy Carter installed solar panels on the White House roof to heat water for the staff eating area. He said it demonstrated the nation's move toward ``true energy security and abundant, readily available energy supplies."

Oops.

When Ronald Reagan became president, Carter's solar panels were removed. They were stored until 1990 when they were sent to Unity College in Maine, where, with Hollywood fanfare, they were used to heat water in the cafeteria until they stopped working about 2005. They are now an exhibit in the Carter Library in Georgia.

Three decades later, in another effort to push the nation toward energy independence, President Obama is touting wind power. Traveling to a wind turbine tower plant in Newton, Iowa, on Earth Day on Wednesday, he said renewable energy would help the environment, make the nation safer and create jobs.

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23 April 2009

Where are the Carrots? (LEBANON)

US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's latest pronouncement on possible new sanctions on Iran has been explicit: a series of punishments that will be as "tight and crippling" as possible.

Iran will understand force, and the use of state power in the form of sanctions. But which state or political organization wouldn't? Like other states, Iran is well-versed in the exercise of power, whether domestically, through its nuclear program, or through regional allies like Hizbullah and Hamas, and their rocket arsenals. Violence is what states do, and Iran, like other states, can comprehend the implications of weapons such as sanctions.

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U.S. Shifting Mideast Policy (JAPAN)

It is almost possible to hear the tectonic plates grinding. The whole international landscape is once again on the move, tumbling old structures and turning old assumptions upside-down.

The catalyst this time is the arrival of U.S. President Barack Obama on the world scene and the major shift in American foreign policy and attitudes that this appears to signify. But in reality the shift has been going on for some time, even under Obama's much-criticized predecessor, George W. Bush.

U.S. dominance has been declining for almost a decade. The balance of power and wealth has shifted to Asia, with the present global financial chaos accelerating this trend. A new map of the Middle East is emerging, with Turkey, Egypt and Saudi Arabia as the major regional powers, competing with Iran.

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22 April 2009

Obama's Af-Pak Quandary (INDIA)

Breaking away from President George W Bush's goal of democratisation of the Islamic world, President Barack Obama has placed
defeating the al-Qaida terrorist network at the centre of the US's policy goal in Afghanistan and Pakistan. While popular and logical from the American perspective, this approach fails to take into account the interest of the US's indispensable ally Pakistan, which is concerned with not just al-Qaida, but also with what it sees as growing Indian influence in Afghanistan and the threat of subversion.

Recent interviews with senior Pakistani military officials make it clear that Pakistani cooperation will depend on the Obama administration's readiness to contain India's anti-Pakistan efforts in Afghanistan. While US troop strength in Afghanistan has increased, US officials have repeatedly said that al-Qaida leadership is now located in Pakistan. How deep America will go, and how it will choose between employing drone attacks or deploying troops in the pursuit of al-Qaida will depend on Pakistani cooperation.

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21 April 2009

Obama Must Stop Point-Scoring (UK)

Barack Obama has been busy mending fences broken by the previous, careless attendant of the White House borders. But the latest sua culpa – the disclosure of Central Intelligence Agency interrogation techniques under the previous administration – has led him into having to try to repair a breach all his own. Yesterday he was at the CIA attempting to explain why he had taken away any mystery from detention by revealing the details of waterboarding and other vile ways of extracting information in the effort to prevent murderous attacks.

Waterboarding – or "near drowning" if you prefer your euphemisms less evasive – may well be unconstitutional and its ending could allow him more effectively to build relations with America's detractors.

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Why Does Obama Smile at Dictators? (ISRAEL)

The picture of the president of the United States smiling broadly as he met President Hugo Chavez of Venezuela startled me. Our president is a nice guy. Chavez is anything but.

The State Department maintains that Chávez has attacked democratic traditions and has put Venezuelan democracy on life support with unchecked concentration of power, political persecution, and intimidation. Foreign Affairs magazine says that Chávez is a power-hungry dictator with autocratic and megalomaniacal tendencies whose authoritarian vision and policies are a serious threat to his people. In testimony before the US Senate, the South American project director for the Center for Strategic International Studies said that Chavez's government engages in "arresting opposition leaders, torturing some members of the opposition (according to human rights organizations) and encouraging, if not directing, its squads of Bolivarian Circles to beat up members of Congress and intimidate voters-all with impunity."

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19 April 2009

Too Harsh and Uncompromising? (ISRAEL)

It has become commonplace to assume that the transition from US president George W. Bush to Barack Obama signals a move away from a unilateral, harsh, uncompromising and even militant approach toward Iran to a newfound willingness to embrace dialogue and engagement on the basis of an acceptance of the current regime.

Many seem to believe that the past failures to deal effectively with Iran's nuclear ambitions are due to the uncompromising approach of the Bush administration; they hold high hopes for the new US president who is finally willing to reasonably sort out the problem by sitting down to talk to Iranian leaders on equal standing and with respect. His extended hand to Iran's leaders can be expected to encourage Iran to unclench its fist.

But how accurate is this depiction of the past, and how realistic are the hopes that by expressing willingness to negotiate unconditionally, Obama will be in a better position to improve relations with Iran? Most importantly, will this defuse the crisis surrounding Iran's nuclear ambitions?

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18 April 2009

A Strong Start for Obama (JAPAN)

U.S. President Barack Obama campaigned on a platform of "change." Change was plainly visible throughout his first overseas trip as president. Perhaps the most compelling sign of change was not of his doing: Throughout the weeklong tour of Europe, Mr. Obama was greeted with an enthusiasm that posed a stark contrast to the reception of his predecessor and should put to rest any thoughts about the erosion of U.S. standing in the world. Go beyond the atmospherics, however, and the change is a little more difficult to discern. While Mr. Obama has promised a different foreign policy, his nation's interests and the problems he and other leaders face remain the same.

The hype surrounding Mr. Obama was evident throughout his first stop, the Group of 20 meeting in London. The president's schedule overflowed with bilateral meetings with heads of state. Mr. Obama had tete-a-tetes with his host, British Prime Minister Gordon Brown, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, Chinese President Hu Jintao, South Korean President Lee Myung Bak and Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, among others. His public appearances, like those of Secretary of State Hillary Clinton during her recent visit to Asia, were greeted by rapturous crowds.

In all those sessions, Mr. Obama sent the same message. The United States was eager to work with partners to tackle the key problems that the world faces.

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Creating a New Reset Button (RUSSIA)

This year is the 100th anniversary of Russia's parliamentary diplomacy. The State Duma, which was founded in 1906, organized its first visit to the West in 1909, when deputies visited Britain and France and were received at a very high level.

The diplomatic activity of today's Duma deputies is less formal than it was 100 years ago but no less effective. On Tuesday, the U.S. Senate-Federation Council working group held its latest meeting in Moscow with the participation of U.S. Senators Carl Levin, Bill Nelson and Susan Collins. This interparliamentary group alternately gathers in Russia and the United States to discuss the most important issues that have accumulated in U.S.-Russian relations. Based on the results of the meeting, each participant writes recommendations to their respective presidents and other top members of their executive branches.

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17 April 2009

An Afghan solution Involving Pakistan (LEBANON)

In Washington we have yet another acronym: AfPak, which stands for Afghanistan and Pakistan. More specifically, the contraction relates to the area of responsibilities of Ambassador Richard Holbrook, the special adviser to President Barack Obama for the two aforementioned countries.

Beyond the swelling of the field of acronym-ology, the term AfPak sends a clear message that the United States regards success of current counterinsurgency and counter-terrorism operations as well as longer-term state-building projects in Afghanistan as directly linked with Pakistan.

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World is Waiting, Mr Obama! (UAE)

A rather perceptive colleague is tired of my endless adulation for Barack Obama. Every time I talk about him, she rolls her eyes to point out all that America’s new president has done is talk, talk and talk. There are no actions to back up his rhetoric.

She accuses me of ‘betraying the cause’ when she sees my repugnance of George W Bush give way to hopeless admiration for his successor. And I ask her to pit Obama against W. and see the difference. I ask her to imagine the alternate scenario if the Americans had NOT voted for Obama.

We would be stuck with John McCain today, the 72-year old warhorse from Bush’s party who talked of staying in Iraq and Afghanistan forever and promise to ‘bomb-bomb’ Iran.

Obama may not have produced any pigeons out of his hat yet. But look at what he has already set out to do. It gives you real hope about the ‘change we can.’ Next week, he will be completing three months in office. These have been perhaps the most eventful and epoch-making twelve weeks of any leader in the US history with implications that go far beyond America’s borders.

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Iran Should Honor Obama's Courage (JORDAN)

The American government‘s decision to join the international negotiations with Iran over the latter’s nuclear energy programme is a historic marker of immense importance - certainly one of the most important diplomatic turning points of our time, in my view. It marks the first time in recent memory when a developing country branded as part of the “axis of evil” by the last American administration forces the president in Washington to reverse American policy and make what might appear to be a humiliating about-face - more or less admitting defeat in the face of Iranian resistance, defiance and persistence.

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Restoration of US-Turkey Relations? (EGYPT)

President Barack Hussein Obama swooped into Turkey on April 6 for two days of fence-mending bilateral relations with erstwhile, if sometimes prickly, ally Turkey while disseminating a message of friendship to the wider Muslim world. Obama cut a dashing figure, mesmerizing the normally skeptical Turkish public with self-deprecating references to his inspirational life story of struggle and achievement.

This trip can be characterized as a success in terms of public diplomacy. Opinion polls indicate that Turks have a growing favorable attitude toward Obama. Turkey's media was also mostly upbeat, bringing into sharp focus the contrast between the positive vibes toward Obama and the negative perceptions of former President George W Bush. Meanwhile, President Obama heaped praise on Turkey's European perspective, democratic and secular traditions, and regional aspirations in the Middle East. He deftly maneuvered around the hot Armenian issue without conceding on his points of principle.

Obama also awed audiences beyond Turkey.

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15 April 2009

Slow Change in Cuba Suits Everyone (UK)

A good rule of thumb in predicting Barack Obama's foreign policy in a given area has been to reverse the course taken by George W Bush. This week has seen a sterling example, in the shape of relations with Cuba. Cuban-Americans will now be able to visit relatives annually, rather than every three years; limits on the amounts they can send back to their families have been removed; and US communications firms and broadcasters are free to transact with the island.

But, tellingly, the President did not present these changes himself. That was left to his press secretary Robert Gibbs, who made the announcement on the afternoon of Easter Monday, a piece of stagecraft designed to bury the news as far down the evening bulletins as possible.

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14 April 2009

Foreign Policy Maze Ahead of Obama (FRANCE)

It’s no surprise that President Obama’s foreign policy challenges are unsavoury, diverse and numerous, but most worrisome is the degree to which they overlap in the worst ways possible. For Americans, our allies’ concerns, our enemies’ threats and victims’ pleas are inextricably tied to one another — by nature, or the hand of political leaders and institutions across the globe. Solving one problem seems impossible without solving the rest, or at least pretending to do so.

Iraq and Afghanistan are seldom far from our doorstep for obvious reasons; but with Obama’s focus on renewing old alliances and forging newer (convenient) ones, many others are requesting an audience. Unfortunately, it is impossible for Obama to address each or even most of them. And inevitably the process of prioritising is going to get ugly.

Here are just a few of Obama’s more important foreign policy goals:

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How Will Iran Respond (GERMANY)

US President Barack Obama has given Tehran the choice: The mullah regime can either give up its nuclear program and get rewarded for doing so, or it will face intensified sanctions. But Iran has made significant progress with its nuclear facilities and is unprepared to agree to a moratorium.

It's going to be his day of festival, the "Day of the Atom." To celebrate the event, Iran's president will travel on Wednesday to Isfahan, the pride of the nation and jewel of ancient Persia, one of the most impressive centers of culture in the Islamic world. It was in Isfahan that his predecessors, the Safawiden rulers, resided and established a great civilization at the end of the 16th century.

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is arriving in Isfahan from the capital Tehran on his presidential aircraft, an aging Boeing 707, and the only foreign journalists on board are reporters from SPIEGEL -- a first. The provincial capital's powerful and important people are standing at attention on the tarmac: mullahs, military officials and bureaucrats.

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12 April 2009

Ceding Iran's Nuclear Rights? (HONG KONG)

When the wastes of Qyzylqum and Karakum blossom in early spring, the enchanting sight can pain one's heart. But the killer deserts are deceptive in appearance, especially Qyzylqum, which is in the tract of land between the two great rivers in Central Asia - the Amu Darya and Sirdarya.

In the spring of 1220, when Genghis Khan abruptly rode out of the Qyzylqum with a few hundred Mongol horsemen to take the Amir of Bukhara by surprise, the Amir never imagined that the desert would so easily concede safe passage to a Mongol stranger. Bukhara - one of the biggest cities at that time along with Cordoba, Cairo and Baghdad - paid heavily for the desert's treachery. Bukhara took over two centuries to recover from "God's wrath", which the austere Khan insisted he was administering to the slothful, opulent city for its sinful ways.

It is again early spring in the Central Asian steppes.

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Iran Should Reciprocate Obama's Courage (LEBANON)

The Obama administration's decision to join the international negotiations with Iran over the latter's nuclear energy program is a historical marker or immense importance - certainly one of the most important diplomatic turning points of our time, in my view. It marks the first time in recent memory that a developing country, one branded as part of the "Axis of Evil" by the precious American administration, forced the current president in Washington to make what might appear to be a humiliating about-face, more or less admitting defeat in the face of Iranian defiance and persistence.

The core of this reversal comes from the fact that Washington now agrees to begin negotiating with Iran even if it moves ahead with uranium enrichment. Previously, the 5+1 group (the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council plus Germany) had negotiated fruitlessly with Iran amid the Bush administration's insistence that Tehran needed to suspend its enrichment program before talks could advance. This led to several UN Security Council sanctions against Iran.

This is not a sign of weakness by the United States, but rather a sign of wisdom and realism for which it should be commended.

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10 April 2009

Obama Abroad (ISRAEL)

This is day 81 in the countdown toward the 100th day of Barack Obama's presidency. The benchmark probably dates back to Franklin D. Roosevelt, who came into office with no particular ideology but promising "action, and action now" - and a readiness to pursue pragmatic policies.

Obama has returned to Washington after his most significant trip abroad since taking office. The president enjoys strong support from the majority of Americans who voted for him (Democrats give him an 88 percent approval rating) though he has made few strides in winning over John McCain's supporters (only 27% of Republicans think he's doing a good job). Obama's critics complain he spent too much time overseas in "excuse me, excuse my predecessor, or excuse my country" mode.

Still, Obama's message - "I'm personally committed to a new chapter of American engagement" - set a new tone for US foreign policy among Washington's ostensible allies in Europe, Turkey and Iraq.

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09 April 2009

Obama Factor Reaches Iran (UK)

A year after becoming president in 2005, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad declared that the 20th day in the Persian month of Farvardin would officially be known as National Nuclear Technology day. On this day, which falls on Thursday 9 April this year, the government and people of Iran are to celebrate their country's nuclear achievements.

Ahmadinejad is not in charge of Iran's nuclear programme. The supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is. Nevertheless, he allows Ahmadinejad to use the occasion to inform the people of Iran about the technical progress made by Iran's nuclear programme during the past year. Last year, Ahmadinejad declared that "Iran was ready to install some 6,000 new centrifuges at the nuclear facility in the central province of Natanz".

This year, National Nuclear Technology day will have added importance for the president. While Ahmadinejad will be making his yearly speech about Iran's nuclear accomplishments, he will be well aware that from that day, only 64 days remain until the presidential elections, scheduled for 12 June.

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08 April 2009

Hands across the Atlantic (CANADA)

"I think we did okay," concluded U.S. President Barack Obama after last week's London G20 summit on the world financial crisis. It was a verdict that could reasonably be applied to all three summits - Prague and Strasbourg, as well as London - and to the numerous bilateral meetings the President attended on his whirlwind European tour that ends today in Turkey.

Where security permitted, Mr. Obama received his usual rock-star welcome from large crowds of young Europeans. He established good personal relations with all the major European leaders. And he delivered a bold substantive speech calling for the popular goal of curbing nuclear proliferation.

Americans at home will conclude from the news coverage that their new President has restored America's reputation somewhat. All the summits ended in some kind of agreement. Mr. Obama's bilateral meeting with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev was cordial. And the overall impression from the tour is that the Atlantic alliance is recovering nicely to tackle some important but soluble economic and security questions.

Okay seems a fair verdict - and maybe slightly better than okay.

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Obama Is No Jimmy Carter (AUSTRALIA)

Barack Obama's European tour has been a public relations bonanza that has not yet reaped commensurate rewards in allied policies. Yet his speeches and answers to questions have revealed aspects of his foreign policy thinking that belie the original scepticism of many who feared his inexperience would result in the naivety and incoherence that plagued the Carter administration. Despite blunders in the appointments process, Obama has shown a wisdom, intellectual clarity and moral humility that Jimmy Carter lacked, and that augurs well for dealing with the tremendous threats to US and Western security.

The blunders in the second-tier appointments process are not likely Obama's fault but those of his aides. Distinguished retired four-star general Anthony Zinni was offered the important position of ambassador to Iraq, which he accepted, only to see the offer withdrawn in the most insulting manner, so former North Korea negotiator Christopher Hill could take it.

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The "G-2"? (TAIWAN)

All indications are that the first summit meeting between the new American president, Barack Obama, and his Chinese counterpart, Hu Jintao, went extremely well. The American leader has already accepted an invitation to visit Beijing later this year.

Beijing made sure the summit would go well by not pushing a confrontation that occurred between the two countries in the South China Sea last month. The incident was mentioned by Obama in the meeting with Hu, but both sides decided not to dwell on it. Instead, they have agreed on a new, high-level dialogue mechanism, called the Strategic and Economic Dialogue (SAED). Under this arrangement, there will be Cabinet-level dialogues involving both political and economic issues every year.

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What Obama didn't see in Iraq (HONG KONG)

United States President Barack Obama's sudden arrival in Baghdad from Turkey on Tuesday - his first trip to Iraq since becoming president in January - took priority over other news coming out of the Iraqi capital, but meaningful events were also taking place elsewhere.

On the same day, Iraqi National Dialogue Minister Akram al-Hakim landed in Cairo to meet with former Ba'athists and ex-officers from the Iraqi army in exile. He had been sent to Egypt by Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki to ask the supporters of former president Saddam Hussein to renounce violence and to return to participate in government.

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06 April 2009

Nuclear Dream a Noble Cause (IRELAND)

President George Bush senior proclaimed a "new world order" after the fall of communism. It never happened. Can it happen now under a president so different from him in his generation, background and mode of thinking?

Over these last days, Barack Obama has starred in one show after another: the G20, the NATO commemorative meeting and the US-EU summit. But President Obama is the star of every show, in the conference hall or on the streets. What matters is not the show but what he has demonstrated of his substance this week.

Unquestionably the G20 summit was a success, but not a complete success. The global financial system has not been repaired. The signs of economic recovery are still feeble. And Mr Obama, backed by British Prime Minister Gordon Brown, still has differences with the major European continental nations. But the participants reached a large measure of agreement on the road to travel.

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Taliban: US Troops Will Not End Afghan War (India)

Thousands of extra US troops headed to Afghanistan will not stop the Taliban insurgency but fuel further attacks, the militia said on Monday in a statement directed at the top US military commander. Admiral Mike Mullen told reporters in Kabul on Sunday that an extra 17,000 US troops to be deployed to Afghanistan in coming weeks would allow security forces to start to turn the tide against insurgents in the south.

Mullen has been holding two days of talks in Afghanistan with US envoy for Afghanistan and Pakistan, Richard Holbrooke.

"As much as the foreign forces increase, fighting will increase and there will be increased civilian casualties," Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid told AFP in a telephone call from an undisclosed location.

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The Vanishing Bomb (EGYPT)

The agreement by the American and Russian presidents to renew strategic arms reductions has revived hope for the global abolition of nuclear arms. The urgency can hardly be exaggerated: nuclear weapons may come into the possession of states that might use them, as well as of stateless terrorists — creating new threats of unimaginable proportion.

A noble dream just several years ago, the elimination of nuclear arms is no longer the idea only of populists and pacifists; it has now been adopted by professionals — politicians known for their realism and academics known for their sense of responsibility.

The invention of nuclear weapons — which served the goal of deterrence during the Cold War, when the world was divided into two opposing blocs — answered the needs and risks of the time. Security rested on a balance of fear, as reflected in the concept of mutually assured destruction.

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05 April 2009

Obama to Turkey: "Upgrade," Not "Reset" (TURKEY)

US President Barack Obama's first visit to a Muslim-majority nation will take place Sunday in Turkey. This is a wise choice, and if relations with Russia are to receive a "reset," US-Turkish relations are in need of a serious "upgrade."

Obama's visit comes at a critical juncture in US-Turkish relations and represents a golden opportunity for both allies to take the relationship to a higher level.

The Turkey that Obama will visit is a very different place from the "moderate Islamic model" that President George W. Bush touted five years ago. The ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) has been riding a wave of popular sentiment that blends a previously irreconcilable mix of religious and secular nationalism. In this context, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's dramatic walkout at the World Economic Forum in Davos, his call for Israel to be removed from the UN and his posturing against an International Monetary Fund (IMF) agreement to help Turkey weather the economic crisis illustrate the potential repercussions if Turkey were to detach completely from its Western anchors.

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04 April 2009

US-Russia Ties on a New Trajectory (HONG KONG)

Face-to-face meetings between the leaderships of the United States and Russia have a history of inspiring optimism that eventually turns out to be illusory and short-lived. The summit meeting at the Black Sea resort of Sochi a year ago was a perfect instance. The Sochi summit produced a grandiloquent declaration spelling out the contours of strategic cooperation between the two big powers.

But no sooner had the summit ended, acrimony broke out and US-Russia ties plunged into free fall. The ties grew increasingly strained. The conflict in the South Caucasus last August led to a dangerous drift in relations between Russia and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). It added to the list of contentious issues already complicating the US-Russia relationship - deployment of components of the US missile defense system in Central Europe, NATO's eastward expansion, rivalries over Caspian energy resources, simmering discords in the Black Sea region, and so on. Enveloping all these issues, an atmosphere of distrust descended on US-Russia ties.

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The West's Fatal Overdose

Now they're celebrating again. An "historic compromise" had been reached, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said at the conclusion of the G-20 summit in London, while US President Barack Obama spoke of a "turning point" in the fight against the global downturn. Behind the two leaders, the summit's motto could clearly be seen: "stability, growth, jobs."

When the celebrations have died down, it will be easier to look at what actually happened in London with a cool eye. The summit participants took the easy way out. Their decision to pump a further $5 trillion (€3.72 trillion) into the collapsing world economy within the foreseeable future, could indeed prove to be a historical turning point -- but a turning point downwards. In combating this crisis, the international community is in fact laying the foundation for the next crisis, which will be larger. It would probably have been more honest if the summit participants had written "debt, unemployment, inflation" on the wall.

The crucial questions went unanswered because they weren't even asked. Why are we in the current situation anyway? Who or what has got us into this mess?

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03 April 2009

In London, U.S-Russian Pragmatism (RUSSIA)

The promise by U.S. President Barack Obama's administration to "press the reset button" in its relations with Russia holds promise for rapid progress in the near future as well as for dealing with serious problems down the line.

By the end of President George W. Bush's last term in office, the level of mutual trust between Russia and the United States had fallen to a 30-year low. The meaningful communication needed for at least a modicum of mutual understanding had all but stopped between Moscow and Washington. The barbs they traded over the Russia-Georgia war in August demonstrated that a continuation of this state of affairs had the potential to escalate the verbal volley with Washington into an armed conflict.

Washington's restrained reaction to the announcement that Bishkek would cancel the lease on the U.S. military base in Manas was a sign that the Obama administration was taking a different approach to foreign policy. It isn't difficult to imagine what an uproar the same decision would have elicited from former U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. We now hear far fewer of the unequivocal pronouncements about democracy and human rights that characterized the former occupants of the White House and State Department. It would seem that, in addition to pushing the "reset button," Obama has decided to turn down the volume as well.

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Obama Can Save Iran from Israeli Bombs (UK)

An Israeli colleague was sent on an assignment so secret and sensitive that it was years before he would share the full story with friends.

He was dispatched by Menachem Begin, then the Prime Minister, to European capitals with orders to meet editors, politicians and opinion makers to spread the word that Israel was increasingly concerned about Iraq's nuclear programme and would do anything to stop Saddam Hussein building the bomb. The warnings, intended to prepare Western public opinion, were largely dismissed as sabre-rattling (one editor insisted on discussing a new lavatory system designed on a kibbutz) - until June 1981, when Israeli Air Force F16s bombed the plant to rubble.

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02 April 2009

US Sees Devil in Cross-Strait Detente (HONG KONG)

In the past three decades since China and the United States established formal diplomatic ties, Washington has attempted to maintain the status quo on the Taiwan Strait, as this best serves US interests. Under this policy, Washington wants to see neither Taiwan's independence nor the two sides across the strait moving closer too quickly.

The Barack Obama administration will surely stick to this policy, despite warming Sino-US ties. From this view, it is understandable why the US House of Representatives has adopted a resolution that reiterates US support for Taiwan's defense at a time when mainland China-Taiwan ties are warming dramatically and rapidly.

On February 24, the House voted to adopt a resolution marking the "30th anniversary of the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA)". Two days later, the resolution was referred to the House Committee on Foreign Affairs of the US Congress by 17 representatives. China responded by expressing strong dissatisfaction and lodged objections over the issue.

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Obama Off Form, Brown Basks (UK)

We now know the form with these events: British PM pays deferential homage to the American president, who repays the compliment with warm words for the special ties the US feels for Britain. The dynamic is usually clear: the Brit is grateful simply to be standing next to the most powerful man in the world. He is yapping spaniel; the American is top dog.

Occasionally, that alters. When Tony Blair visited Bill Clinton in early 1998, the latter was mired in the Monica Lewinsky scandal – he needed Blair there calling him "friend". George W Bush, too, found he needed Blair, chiefly because the PM could explain Bush's war on terror more articulately than Bush could.

Wednesday's joint press conference of Gordon Brown and Barack Obama had no such dynamic at work: Obama remains the global superstar with a fresh mandate, Brown the ailing prime minister with anemic poll numbers whose last victory in a competitive election was for his Kirkcaldy seat.

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End of the War on Terror? Nope. (CANADA)

The Obama administration inherited many toxic legacies from its Bush/Cheney predecessor. At the top of the list has to be the “war on terror,” first proclaimed shortly after 9/11 and set in doctrinal stone in the 2002 U.S. National Security Strategy. Many Obama supporters, in the United States and abroad, would like nothing better than to forget the whole thing and concentrate on the rest of a full hand of troubles – the economy, energy transformation, the climate, the health of the planet. But the war on terror isn't going away.

Dick Cheney famously proclaimed that the U.S. would have to go over “to the dark side” to combat terrorist threats. That dark side gave us Guantanamo, a whole string of executive orders that flouted the law and stretched presidential prerogatives, CIA secret prisons abroad, and “extraordinary rendition” of suspected terrorists into the willing hands of jailors in a variety of Middle Eastern countries.

Barack Obama's challenge is to extract counterterrorism strategy from the dark side and infuse it with a renewed respect for legal and democratic norms, and a concern for America's reputation abroad. There will have to be a serious effort not just to launch missiles against terrorists but also to wage a sustained hearts and minds campaign.

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30 March 2009

Europe's Obama Euphoria Wanes (GERMANY)

Anne-Marie Slaughter, the new director of policy planning at the US State Department, was sitting on the stage at a conference on trans-Atlantic relations in Brussels. "Europe has a phone number," she said, and there was a satisfied murmuring of approval among her mainly European audience. Everyone remembers the famous remark by former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, who complained in the 1970s that he didn't know who to call when he wanted to talk to Europe.

But when the moderator asked Slaughter if she had that number on her, she was evidently caught off guard. "I have three," she replied. The hall erupted into loud laughter.

Slaughter quickly corrected herself, explaining that Europe was simply organized differently, with an EU "troika" representing the bloc on foreign policy issues, but that the EU was still able to conduct an effective foreign policy. Nevertheless, the exchange reflected a degree of uncertainty in relations with Europe ahead of US President Barack Obama's first major foreign trip.

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29 March 2009

US Tries to Defuse a Ticking Timebomb (UK)

All eyes will be on Barack Obama at the G20 summit this week. Among the great and good, the dull and dreary, in London’s Docklands he will be the only superstar. But the young president knows that what is decided inside a gleaming tower block in Tel Aviv will have more bearing on whether his presidency is accounted a success or failure than this talking shop.

High in the defence ministry building Major-General Amos Gilad points to a photograph on his wall of three Israeli F-15 jets flying over the site of Auschwitz. “I put it here to remind us of what happened and what may happen,” says the old fire-eater. The press claims he has been the real leader of the state for the past six months while the politicians have been out wooing the voters.

On his shelves one book holds pride of place. It is a story written in childhood by Gilad Shalit, an Israeli soldier kidnapped almost three years ago by Hamas, the Islamic militant group that controls the Gaza strip. As Israel’s security and foreign policy chief, Gilad has been negotiating for Shalit’s release. He is prepared to free hundreds of Palestinian prisoners to secure the return of one soldier. The Hollywood myth of Saving Private Ryan is national policy here.

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28 March 2009

A New Strategy for Afghanistan and Pakistan

By Barack Obama

Good morning. Today, I am announcing a comprehensive, new strategy for Afghanistan and Pakistan.

This marks the conclusion of a careful policy review that I ordered as soon as I took office. My Administration has heard from our military commanders and diplomats. We have consulted with the Afghan and Pakistani governments; with our partners and NATO allies; and with other donors and international organizations. And we have also worked closely with members of Congress here at home. Now, I'd like to speak clearly and candidly to the American people.

The situation is increasingly perilous. It has been more than seven years since the Taliban was removed from power, yet war rages on, and insurgents control parts of Afghanistan and Pakistan. Attacks against our troops, our NATO allies, and the Afghan government have risen steadily. Most painfully, 2008 was the deadliest year of the war for American forces.

Many people in the United States - and many in partner countries that have sacrificed so much - have a simple question: What is our purpose in Afghanistan? After so many years, they ask, why do our men and women still fight and die there? They deserve a straightforward answer.

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27 March 2009

Obama's Afghan Spaghetti Western (HONG KONG)

As the Barack Obama administration releases the details of its strategic review of Afghanistan's "good war", an acronym-plagued global public opinion is confronted with a semantic dilemma: what in the world is happening to George W Bush's "global war on terror" (GWOT), then slyly rebranded by the Pentagon as "The Long War" (TLW)?

It all started when a mid-level bureaucrat in the Obama administration's Office of Management and Budget (OMB) sent an e-mail to the Pentagon stressing the White House was finally axing GWOT and giving birth to the delightfully Orwellian Overseas Contingency Operations (OCO).

As it happens, no Taliban will be OCOed - at least for the moment. The White House and the Pentagon still rely on GWOT. Pentagon press secretary Geoff Morrell was adamant: "I've never received such a directive." Asked by a reporter what nomenclature he would prefer, Morrell took no prisoners: "Another way to refer to it would be, you know, a campaign against extremists who wish to do us harm." So exit GWOT, enter CAEWWTDUH.

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