America Must Engage North Korea (JAPAN)

On the question of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, better known as (a) North Korea, (b) notorious charter member of former U.S. President George W. Bush's "axis of evil" and (c) pain-in-the-neck threat to world peace and stability, here are a few humble observations in light of the fact that, basically, no one really knows what to do about North Korea, including China:

• First, you do NOT need to scramble to the telephone to get the local contractor to sink that bomb shelter into your backyard — not just yet, anyway. In its current state of evolution, North Korea is still far from being a serious world-threatening nuclear power.

It is true, the trend lines are ominous: In recent days this much unloved regime has test-fired several missiles and appears to have detonated yet another underground nuclear explosion of unclear size and uncertain sophistication. Even so, this all amounts to a mean flurry of activity from a regime claiming the adherence of some 23 million residents — almost every last one being ethnic Korean and too many being mainly hungry.

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Obama's Bold Settlements (LEBANON)

The emergence of Zionist-Jewish colonialism - otherwise euphemistically called "Israeli settlements" - as the litmus test of relations between Israel and the United States is an important indicator of how quickly the Obama administration has moved to reposition itself in the Middle East.

The latest statements by President Barack Obama and Secretary of State Hilary Clinton represent a dramatic change in American policy rhetoric, which now unambiguously calls for a total freeze on settlements, natural growth, "outposts" and anything else the Israelis do when they transfer their population into colonies built on Arab lands occupied in 1967. Washington has dropped its previous wishy-washy practice of merely calling colonies and settlements "unhelpful" to peacemaking, and has used dramatic moments to press its point to Israel and the world.

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Middle East Hangs on Obama's Words (UK)

Elections in Lebanon and Iran; a long-promised Obama speech to the Muslim world in Cairo; summits with Saudi Arabia and Egypt, and a growing rift between the US and Israel. The Middle East is heading into one of those watershed periods that could define the region for years to come.

The countdown begins on Wednesday when Barack Obama travels to Riyadh and then to Cairo for a speech to try to bridge the divide between Islam and the west. His officials are giving little away about the content but seem definite on one point.

The president will not use his Cairo platform to spell out the details of his revamped, amalgamated plan for an Arab-Israeli settlement, though he may touch on Palestine. Instead a more broad-brush approach is expected.

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Obama’s Guantánamo Dilemma (IRAN)

By giving his most detailed speech so far on terrorist detainees on Thursday, Barack Obama was hoping to persuade others to drop the subject.

Unfortunately for Mr. Obama, who wants to direct the conversation to more forward-looking topics, such as healthcare reform and a possible Arab-Israeli peace process, the turmoil surrounding treatment of alleged terrorists is likely to persist.

That is partly because he has adopted a messy position himself. On the one hand Mr. Obama has said he will close the Guantánamo detention centre by next January. On the other, his administration continues to use George W. Bush’s definition of the “war on terror” to detain the most dangerous ones indefinitely – just not on Cuban soil, or American, if Congress continues to get its way.

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Medvedev Hopeful About Obama Visit (RUSSIA)

President Dmitry Medvedev expressed optimism Saturday about advancing relations with the United States during President Barack Obama’s visit to Moscow in July even on divisive topics such as NATO’s eastward expansion.

Medvedev again criticized NATO’s ongoing military exercises in Georgia, which Russia defeated in a brief war in August, saying such drills were clearly “provocative” and threatened stability in the region.

He expressed hope, however, that he would have a fruitful discussion on security cooperation with Obama when he visits Moscow on July 6 to 8.

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Friends In Deed (INDIA)

The deadly bomb blast that killed dozens in Lahore yesterday once again underlines the grave threat posed by extremists in Pakistan to the very
survival of that country. The incident reiterates the grievous risk that a Pakistan speedily spinning out of control poses to its neighbours and to global security. Even as the Pakistani establishment under pressure from and with the help of the US fights the Taliban in its territory, it is increasingly becoming clear that what is being done is not going to be enough to restore stability.

Leading powers, in Pakistan's neighbourhood and away, simply cannot afford to leave it to America alone to manage the crisis in Pakistan. In this context, reports that America has solicited the help of Pakistan's long-time allies, China and Saudi Arabia, to help Pakistan counter the militant threat is welcome news. It reflects a growing understanding in the Obama administration that China, which has equipped Pakistan militarily for decades, and Saudi Arabia, which is a major source of funds for Pakistan, could wield critical influence over our neighbour.

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The World Watches Obama (UK)

It's become fashionable to argue that the US and the international community, however that entity is defined, can do little to rein in maverick, gun-totin', bomb-throwing North Korea. Bill Clinton tried being nice, sending his secretary of state, Madeleine Albright, to Pyongyang, and that didn't work. George Bush tried being horrid, talked about the "axis of evil", then switched back to nice. That had no lasting impact, either.

South Korea, closest to the problem and with the most to lose (and perhaps gain) tried summit meetings, economic zones and other inducements. But its so-called "sunshine policy" was rained off as the North repeatedly reverted to gloomy, aggressive type. The UN security council tried sanctions, then more sanctions. Now Russia says it is contemplating even tougher sanctions. Don't hold your breath.

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Nuremberg Precedent For Bush Trial (JAPAN)

The Nuremberg Principles, a set of guidelines established after World War II to try Nazi Party members, were developed to determine what constitutes a war crime. The principles can also be applied today when considering the conditions that led to the Iraq war and, in the process, to the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people, many of them children, and to the devastation of a country's infrastructure.

In January 2003, a group of American law professors warned President George W. Bush that he and senior officials of his government could be prosecuted for war crimes if their military tactics violated international humanitarian law. The group, led by the New York-based Center for Constitutional Rights, sent similar warnings to British Prime Minister Tony Blair and to Canadian Prime Minister Jean Chretien.

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Iran Courts the US's Allies (HONG KONG)

As the prospect of much-discussed dialogue between the United States and Iran on Afghanistan languishes ahead of Iran's June 12 presidential elections, Tehran is not wasting any time in deepening its ties with Pakistan and Afghanistan. A trilateral mini-summit in Tehran over the weekend brought the leaders of the countries together and culminated in a comprehensive "Tehran declaration".

It could be termed an anti-extremism summit, as the primary focus of the Tehran talks was regional coordination in the fight against terrorism and extremism. Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei told the visiting Afghan and Pakistani presidents, Hamid Karzai and Asif Ali Zardari, that "we [Iran] strongly support trilateral cooperation".

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An Offer Pyongyang Can't Refuse (JAPAN)

Past U.S.-North Korea negotiations on nuclear issues can be roughly classified into two types.

The first type relates to the Framework Agreement of the Clinton administration. The basic assessment from documents of the period was that a military confrontation might result in nearly 1 million military and civilian casualties, so the only option was compromise. The main points of compromise were that North Korea would freeze operations at the Yongbyon nuclear facility under the inspections of the International Atomic Energy Agency and, in return, would receive supplies of heavy fuel oil and construction of a light-water nuclear reactor for power generation. North Korea abided by this compromise from 1994 to 2002.

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U.S. Fighting the Wrong War (JAPAN)

The deeper Pakistan has dug itself into a jihadist dungeon over the past decade and more, the more the United States has gotten involved in that country, including in propping up its tottering economy through generous bilateral and international aid, macro-managing Pakistani politics and pampering the powerful, meddling military establishment.

This political approach contrasts starkly with a stepped-up military approach in Afghanistan, where currently the U.S. focus is on a troop "surge" and the establishment of local-level civil militias.

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Wages Of Incoherence (INDIA)

US secretary of state Hillary Clinton has astonished the world with her rare candour. She has described US policy towards Pakistan on the last 30 years as incoherent.

She has bemoaned that, after accepting Pakistan's support in the Afghanistan war in the 1980s, the US imposed all kinds of sanctions on it. True, US policy was incoherent. But Clinton should be cautioned against accepting an incoherent explanation for it and overlooking what led to US sanctions. It would also help if the US came clean on the Central Intelligence Agency's (CIA) relationship with notorious proliferator A Q Khan.

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Obama Blowing it on Iran (UK)

Has President Obama inadvertently given Iran the green light to develop an atom bomb? I only ask because it appears to be the logical conclusion to be drawn from his announcement this week that he is giving Iran until the end of the year to decide whether or not to co-operate with the West over its controversial nuclear programme.

In all the furore over MPs' expenses, it is hardly surprising that the implications of Mr Obama's highly revealing comment have gone unnoticed in this country. But taken at face value, it could have a major impact on how the international crisis over Iran's nuclear programme plays out.

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The 'Peace Plan' That Isn't (ISRAEL)

During his last visit, US envoy George Mitchell disclosed that the Obama administration looked to the so-called "Arab peace plan" (a.k.a. the Saudi initiative) of 2002 as a starting point for peace between Israel and the Arab world, including the Palestinians. Mitchell's statement reflected a developing policy approach which is gathering steam in Washington these days - as evidenced, among other things, also by some of US President Barack Obama's statements and answers in his joint press conference with Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu.

In fact, in general terms a regional approach also is Netanyahu's preferred approach. Both leaders in their one-on-one session discussed ways and means to buttress the Israel-Arab peace tracks with a participation of others in the Arab world, or as Netanyahu put it: "I would like to broaden the circle of peace to include others in the Arab World."

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US and Israel at Odds (QATAR)

Differences over how to deal with Iran are likely to dominate Tuesday's meeting between Barack Obama, the US president, and Binyamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, at the White House on May 18.

Obama has taken a softer line on Iran's alleged nuclear ambitions, emphasising diplomacy over sabre-rattling and threats of military action.

Further, the Obama administration wants Netanyahu to engage with the Palestinians and work quickly towards a two-state solution as a way of defusing the perceived threat from Tehran.

Netanyahu has shown little interest in reviving dialogue with the Palestinians and has still not endorsed a two-state solution.

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Bringing Hope to the Middle East (UK)

Israel recently celebrated 61 years of existence. On any historical scale, 61 years are not much. A little pixel in the timeline of modern history. And, indeed, most Israelis have their doubts about whether Israel can survive another 61 years.

However, these Israelis do not offer a path that Israel can take to avoid this grim perspective. The last generation of Israelis has seen little change in the makeup of parliament, government and the supreme court. The routine of talking peace in Washington, while expanding settlements in the West Bank has become our way of life over the past 20 years.

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Obama Trips Over Bush Torture Legacy (GERMANY)

There are precisely 44 photos that put the national security of the United States of America at risk -- not quite four dozen images that threaten the lives of soldiers in Afghanistan and Iraq. They are images that are best kept from the global public.

US President Barack Obama has seen them. And last week, addressing reporters on the South Lawn of the White House, he decreed that they should be kept under lock and key. The images, he said in his brief yet firm address, could "reignite" anti-American sentiments.

Apparently the photos are horrifying, even worse than those from the Abu Ghraib prison in Iraq, made infamous by the first batch of torture images published in 2004. Some depict US soldiers driving a tank toward shackled prisoners, leading them to believe that they are about to die. Others show soldiers standing over the corpses of Afghan men. There is one photo of a soldier holding a pistol to the head of a shackled and hooded prisoner.

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Tomorrow We'll Be Nasty (CANADA)

How will Barack Obama's pursuit of his aims sit with Canadians once the rosy afterglow of the charismatic leader's ascension to power wears off? In particular, how will his presidency sit with the great Canadian anti-American coalition, many Liberals, the New Democratic Party, the Greens, the Bloc Québécois, and all those raging grannies of whatever age who despise the United States and all its works?

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Obama, A True Friend (ISRAEL)

Anyone returning to the United States for the first time since Barack Obama's great victory cannot help immediately noticing the quiet revolution taking place there. The national agenda has changed, the public discourse is different, the neoconservative cynicism seems to have been erased from daily life, and George Bush's closed horizon has opened up. Therefore, it would be wise for Israeli leaders, from both right and left, to read Obama's autobiography closely.

It is difficult to imagine life stories, worldviews or mind-sets more different from each other than those of the U.S. president and senior Israeli politicians. If there are patterns of behavior that Obama is not fond of, to put it mildly, they are those that characterize Israeli politicians. The Israelis, from Shimon Peres to Ehud Barak, Benjamin Netanyahu, Ehud Olmert and Avigdor Lieberman, all tend to view the world in a one-dimensional fashion. They have an unshakable belief that all they do and believe is right under any circumstances and at all times. They look down on those who are weaker than them, but at the same time sink easily into whining and self-pity. Israelis, like spoiled children, always believe they deserve everything, immediately.

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Overcoming the Hobbesian Instinct (RUSSIA)

An ancient Chinese proverb says, "Making a prediction is difficult -- especially in regard to the future." I would go a step further and say, "We have absolutely no idea what the future has in store for us." There are plenty of instances in the last century of how unexpected, epochal events in global affairs have caught us completely by surprise.

In his memoirs of a trip through Europe in 1911, British historian Arnold Toynbee noted that Europe had enjoyed 40 years of peace and that the borders between states had effectively been eliminated. After traveling from one country to another, Toynbee returned home in high spirits, confident that Europeans had a bright future of integration, peace and prosperity. Just three years later, World War I broke out, and 20 years after that -- World War II. Neither the brilliant historian Toynbee nor most of his contemporaries could have imagined this tragic chain of events.

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The Curious Sacking of Gen McKiernan (UK)

It seems harsh to suggest the Pentagon top brass don't know what they're doing. But those who care to read the transcript of the press conference at which the sacking of the top American general in Afghanistan was announced may find that conclusion hard to resist. "In some ways we're learning as we go here," said Admiral Mike Mullen, chairman of the joint chiefs. It was not a reassuring admission.

The public defenestration of General David McKiernan, a distinguished career officer who took command in Kabul less than one year ago, was brutal in that cold, callous way peculiar to American officialdom. More to the point, it remains largely unexplained. "We can and must do better ... We have a new policy set by our president, a new strategy, a new mission ... I believe new military leadership is also needed," said Robert Gates, the defence secretary.

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Obama's Tax Threat (IRELAND)

The alarm bells should have gone off loud and clear when US president Barack Obama named Ireland as one of three countries where the activities of US multinationals and their overseas tax payment policies were being scrutinised.

The relatively sanguine reaction in Ireland is puzzling. If there is one aspect to Obama so far it is that he means what he says when he pursues a policy.

There is an element of whistling past the graveyard in my opinion in the Irish reaction to the Obama proposals, a kind of “it’ll be all right on the night” approach. That could be a major mistake.

The reality with Obama is that every major campaign promise, including this one to reform American tax policy as it affects overseas earnings has been followed up in a methodical and direct manner.

Healthcare, reform of the financial system, immigration reform are being approached in a similar way. He is a new kind of politician, one utterly devoid of sentiment as one insider characterised him to me. There will be no special pleadings or deals as far as he is concerned.

What this means for the Ireland/US relationship is important.

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Obama Changing the Rules of Mideast Pressure (ISRAEL)

It is not hard to imagine what a tumult it would stir in Jerusalem if the United States decided to temporarily ease the pressure on Iran regarding its nuclear program. Or if President Barack Obama ordered a freeze, for the time being, on the sanctions against Syria. God help the U.S. administration if it even considers lifting the boycott on the Hamas rulers in the Gaza Strip before the Palestinian group agrees to a two-state solution within the 1967 borders. And how nice that Congress is delaying the emergency assistance package to the Palestinian Authority until a new government is formed in Ramallah, in order to ensure that it's one we like.

International pressure on neighbors has always been a welcome and even essential tool. Without pressure from the outside why would Iran give up, voluntarily, its nuclear capability? If the United States does not pressure Syria to disengage from terrorist groups, what reason does Damascus have to clash with Hamas and Hezbollah? Were it not for the pressure applied by the Reagan administration on the Palestine Liberation Organization, the Palestinian National Council would not have declared a cessation of the armed struggle against Israel and would not have adopted UN Resolution 242. Presumably Benjamin Netanyahu will not complain about pressure that the Obama administration might apply against the Palestinians; for example, to push them to recognize Israel as a state of the Jewish people.

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The Secret of His Success (UAE)

No other American president in modern memory has faced a learning curve as steep as the one Barack Obama has encountered. Three years ago in April, 2006, the Dow Jones Industrial Average traded between 11,017 and 11,468.

It wasn’t until 18 months later in October, 2007 that the Dow Jones averages peaked at 14,269 and began the downward spiral with a 55 per cent drop to 6,443 on March 6, 2009. By the time he took office, America’s financial industry was in chaos, credit markets were frozen, housing values were plummeting and the economy was in its worst contraction since the Great Depression. Add to that Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq, Iran and North Korea, and you get an extraordinary set of challenges.

And yet, by most measures, President Obama’s first 100 days have been successful. The economy remains weak, of course, but he has put forward a series of initiatives to stabilise the capital and housing markets, proposed longer-term programmes to create sustained growth, adjusted America’s military priorities in Afghanistan and Iraq, and begun a process of reaching out to the world and changing America’s image. These are only overtures, and naturally much will depend on how things turn out — in the economy, in Pakistan, in Iraq. But so far, any president would be envious of Obama’s accomplishments.

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Intellectual Torturers (PAKISTAN)

If we are to understand why some Americans accepted administering torture so easily, we need not look for some ancestral hatred or fear of Muslims and Arabs. No, the cause is far worse.

The top-secret memoranda released by the Obama administration concerning torture practices in CIA prisons shed new light on a fundamental question: how is it that people acting in the name of the United States government could so easily accept the idea of torturing the detainees in their charge?

The newly published documents do not disclose the very facts of torture, which were already well known by whomever wanted to know them. But they do reveal a great deal of information about how the torture sessions unfolded and how the agents involved perceived them.

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US & Pakistan: Trying to Do Better (PAKISTAN)

Differences on approach will remain between the US and Pakistan, but perhaps we can now build on the fact that America’s national interest is tied to the stability of a Pakistan that is able to satisfy the basic needs of its people

President Zardari’s visit to Washington is far from over, but we have a good idea by now of the thrust of discussions with the Obama administration and what probably lies ahead in terms of the obligations and responsibilities the participants have agreed to assume.

Much of this will be informed speculation since so far no one has provided any detailed briefing on what exactly was decided.

Clearly, political and security-related goals are the ones that will have dominated discussions, but here I intend to focus on what we can see emerging in the economic sphere. In our current situation, it would appear that security-related cooperation, which will address the shortcomings in our counter-insurgency capabilities, is the priority but there is a clear realisation, as was apparent from President Obama’s remarks about the fragility of the present government in Pakistan, that the inability of governments in both countries to address the basic needs of the people and the growing disparity between the haves and have-nots lie at the root of the discontent that fuels insurgency. This problem needs to be addressed with the same urgency as the security situation.

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Obama and Pakistan (CANADA)

Today, Pakistan's President drops in on America's. There will be forced smiles and fine gifts, but stern words must also be exchanged.

Pakistan's Asif Ali Zardari seems more interested in demonizing India than in defeating the Taliban. Barack Obama can't afford to humour such misplaced priorities. How difficult will it be for him to extract serious change out of his Pakistani peer, fair-weather ally and duly elected, deeply compromised pain in the neck? I got a taste of the odds stacked against meaningful change myself when I confronted Pakistan's former president, Pervez Musharraf, at a recent gathering.

General Musharraf, retired from both electoral politics and army service, owes no fealty to anyone. And he has never held a candle to the corruption that plagues his successor. That's precisely why our encounter proved so revealing - and so damned depressing.

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America Will Rule Post-Crisis World (UK)

I am just back from Washington where the green shoots of recovery have sprouted into a jungle on Wall Street, if not yet on main street or in other countries. I was addressing a meeting of US and European diplomats to survey the geopolitical horizons.

As the world economy gradually returns to something approaching normality after the catastrophe triggered by the Lehmans bankruptcy on September 15 last year, thoughts naturally turn to the longer-term effects of the crisis.

Economic models are never good at predicting turning points in cycles, but in these conditions they are completely useless. To assess the long-term political and ideological impact, it makes more sense to consider two scenarios.

In the first, which has dominated thinking throughout the crisis, the deflationary forces of the credit crunch prevail and the world sinks into a recession lasting many years, with unemployment soaring to levels last seen in the 1930s. In that case, this crisis really will mark the end of US dominance, not only as a global power, but also as an economic model and source of political inspiration. But rather than neatly shifting the mantle of global leadership to China or maybe Europe - if we take seriously the triumphalist rhetoric of President Sarkozy after the London G20 summit about the death of the Anglo-Saxon model - a prolonged recession would usher in chaos.

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Jack Kemp vs. Anti-Semitism (ISRAEL)

Jack Kemp, who passed away on May 1, will be widely remembered as a prominent voice of conservatism who shaped the tax-cut policies of the Reagan administration. But he also deserves to be remembered for his willingness to cross party lines to challenge a Republican administration on the issue of anti-Semitism.

Throughout his life, Kemp defied the old stereotype of conservatives who were indifferent to the concerns of racial or religious minorities.

As an American Football League star in 1965, he pressured the league to move its all-star game out of New Orleans because African-American players were excluded from the city's nightclubs. As secretary of housing and urban development from 1988 to 1992, he promoted projects to help disadvantaged inner-city residents. And in 2004, he played a leading role in a crucial fight against the rising tide of global anti-Semitism.

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What Obama Could Learn From Karzai (HONG KONG)

In retrospect, United States President Barack Obama did a great favor to Afghan President Hamid Karzai by excluding him from his charmed circle of movers and shakers who would wield clout with the new administration in Washington. Obama was uncharacteristically rude to Karzai by not even conversing with him by telephone for weeks after he was sworn in, even though Afghanistan was the number one foreign policy priority of his presidency.

Vice President Joseph Biden traveled to Kabul to let it be known to Karzai that he was a fallen angel and unless Karzai mended his ways and did that soon enough, the US would rather be rid of him once and for all. Biden made it brutally plain that as a surrogate the US had installed in power, it could as easily banish him from grace.

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The Burden of US-Iran Engagement (LEBANON)

President Barack Obama has made outreach to the Islamic Republic of Iran a foreign policy centerpiece of his administration. At his inauguration, he promised that if adversaries of the United States would unclench their fists then Washington would extend a hand. Then, in his first major television interview, he told Al-Arabiya satellite television, "It is important for us to be willing to talk to Iran, to express very clearly where our differences are, but [also] where there are potential avenues for progress. And we will over the next several months be laying out our general framework and approach."

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A Case for the Three Amigos (CANADA)

A crisis often presents governments with an opportunity that can be either seized or missed. One lost chance came shortly after 9/11, when Mexico asked Canada to jointly negotiate a smart border agreement with the United States, as a way of ensuring that our respective land borders be kept as open as possible under Homeland Security concerns to trade in goods and services. Canada rejected the idea of working together in favour of a separate bilateral negotiation with Washington, mainly because it felt its own relationship with the United States was so special that including Mexico would only contaminate the process with issues extraneous to Ottawa's agenda. The result: two nearly identical agreements, signed six months apart, that could have been one of the first trilateral successes of the post-NAFTA era but that, instead, emphasized our differences.

Today, we face another such opportunity. We can only hope that, this time, Canada seizes the moment rather than following the misguided idea that excluding Mexico from the common North American agenda is in its best interest. The swine flu pandemic is an ideal issue on which we should be working together, not only to halt the spread of the virus within our own region and to third countries but to ensure that solidarity among us avoids the adoption of damaging defensive measures by others that will negatively affect trade, tourism and communications to and from all of North America.

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